Today is a slow day but a telling one. At 10:00 this morning, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was at 48.7, lower than the consensus of 49. At 10:09, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimum Index was down to 48.7 from a previous 50.0. When the ISM Manufacturing PMI is above 50, that indicates that the manufacturer is … Continue reading I sold two EUR/USD contracts at $0.20 …
As a binary options trader, I don’t care about cuts in the federal funds rate outside of where an announcement moves the price of the EUR/USD in the short term. But as someone who has to work for a living and is in need of a boost to their capital, a lowered rate of interest … Continue reading Am I pleased with the EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD has fallen from 1.17129 around 6:00 pm ET to 1.16964 at 9:00 pm. At 10:55 pm the EUR/USD was flirting right below the 1.1700 market. Analysts over at FXStreet see the dollar losing ground if the Fed decides to go ahead with an expected 25 basis point decrease in the target range for … Continue reading A new data light day as dollar strengthens
Over the weekend, I spoke to my contacts in the banking industry trying to get a feel for banker sentiments on the Fed’s interest rate policy. The sentiments boiled down to the banks taking whatever the Fed decides in stride. As one contact put it, it’s about the money and the banks will take what … Continue reading Could it be more about where the banks want to go versus where traders think the Fed wants to go?
I have been listening for the past hour or so to Emad Mostaque, the founder of Intelligent Internet, discuss among other things how money will evolve in terms of use and creation in an artificial intelligence world. I decided to tune in after doing a little prior contemplation on my own as to how currencies … Continue reading The problem government faces from AI and crypto is the validation of its own currency.
Last night I committed the unholy error of trading a period outside of my plan. I trade binary options on the EUR/USD from Tuesday to Thursday. I trade for either the 11:00 am expiry or the 3:00 pm expiry. Last night I was up looking at the data coming through the NADEX and thought I … Continue reading Binary options: Tempted to jump in and trade but will stick to my plan.
The EUR/USD closed at 10:00 am at 1.16001. By 11:00 am, it closed at 1.17181. I thought his speech was a rehash of testimony he would have provided to Congress. The “nothing to see hear” nature of it told me that he would try to garner consensus of the rest of the Board members to … Continue reading Powell speech drives up EUR/USD …
August 21, 2025 WASHINGTON, D.C. — Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham announced today the CFTC will begin its next crypto sprint initiative for implementation of the recommendations in the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets report. Starting today, Acting Chairman Pham will begin stakeholder engagement on all other report recommendations for the CFTC. She … Continue reading Acting Chairman Pham Announces Next Crypto Sprint Initiative
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that was held on July 29–30, 2025. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee are generally published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. The descriptions of economic and … Continue reading Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 