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What is the US dollar?

There has been a lot of chatter over the last year about the dollar losing its dominance as a world reserve currency. I believe that the dollar will not lose that dominance overnight. The bulk of its trading partners are in the Euro Zone and North America. I have no doubt that nations like France and Germany will try to maintain close ties with the United States and any China-Russia currency bloc that may ensue from the attempts of emerging markets to develop their own currency. Continue reading What is the US dollar?

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Interbank Market News Scan: Betting markets see the effective federal funds rate dropping and that the Fed will not hike rates.

Over the next twelve months, as rates fall any cheerleading about an economic upturn should be tempered by a narrative that a close eye is being kept on the economy and that disciplined expenditures are being made to keep moderate winds blowing into the economy’s sails. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Betting markets see the effective federal funds rate dropping and that the Fed will not hike rates.

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Interbank Market News Scan: Inflation slows. Expect Biden to take a victory lap.

Should Mr Biden speak specifically to the inflation report, I expect that he will give some amount of credit to his inflation reduction and infrastructure initiatives that he has been implementing over the past two years. In theory, fiscal spending usually takes 18 months to move through the economy. Inflation, however, is a monetary phenomenon where there is an increase in money supply and not enough production in the economy to absorb the money supply. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Inflation slows. Expect Biden to take a victory lap.

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Interbank Market News Scan: No political rhetoric today that impacts the overnight markets in the U.S.

I would think that given the U.S. economy runs on a fractional reserve platform that the Administration and the Congress would politely opine more on monetary policy. The Administration and the Congress appear to prefer the “kick the can across Pennsylvania Avenue and down Constitution Avenue” approach to monetary policy, mentioning it only when it is time to deflect criticisms on his handling of the economy. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: No political rhetoric today that impacts the overnight markets in the U.S.

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Interbank Market News Scan: The Asset-less Shall Inherit the Earth

The irony is that the wrong capital allocation decisions could result in the evaporation of the income generating asset. The asset itself may have to be sold to pay off the debt that has been used to sustain the borrower. Failure to acknowledge the event of paying the balloon payment with the sale of the asset makes the “generational wealth” political argument proffered by some low-income and unbanked advocacy groups sound asinine. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: The Asset-less Shall Inherit the Earth

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Interbank market news scan: Incentivizing the market for a CBDC.

Why not amend the Federal Reserve Act so that depositors can create and enter their own overnight market where they authorize the exchange of funds at some rate agreed to by depositors? Rather than risk less than optimal participation in the digital currency system including the risk that black markets for US currency are created, the government and the Federal Reserve could consider such an incentive system. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Incentivizing the market for a CBDC.

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Interbank market news scan: The jobs report wraps up the Holy Week.

Mr Biden may have missed an opportunity to craft a narrative that emphasizes the importance of getting ahead of the inflationary impact of blocks of emerging economies threatening to transition from the US dollar to resource-backed currencies. These threats have yet to materialize into something definitive and until then the inflationary impact of dumping the US dollar or at least complementing it with other currencies is a way off. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: The jobs report wraps up the Holy Week.

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Interbank market news scan: NFA issues rule to protect against manipulating bitcoin and ether prices.

The Federal Reserve would like to see a looser employment market, including reduced wage pressure and an uptick in unemployment. If these measures do not work to control inflation into 2024, more intrusive measures targeting consumer spending are anticipated. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: NFA issues rule to protect against manipulating bitcoin and ether prices.

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Georgia Power still looks like a proxy for bonds.

Ratepayer advocates in particular should keep in mind that ratemaking occurs in an environment outside of a public utility hearing room; that the rates used by a utility to attract investors and determine the rate of return on the assets used to generate energy are impacted by what happens in the banking environment. How you structure your strategy on rates should take this environment into consideration. Continue reading Georgia Power still looks like a proxy for bonds.