Between 9:02 am and 11:26 am, the CME FedWatch tool reflected an increase in the chances that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase the federal funds target range by 50-basis points. Traders expect a 61% chance of a 50-point increase. Chances of a 25-point increase has slipped to 39% at the time of this … Continue reading Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.
The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.
What I did not hear last night: who will be your pick for chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors? Who will be the director of the National Economic Council? Who would you select as chairman of the Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System? Who will you choose as Treasury secretary? (People are looking for ways … Continue reading What was missing from last night’s debate? An idea as to who will lead a Trump or Harris economy.
During last night’s debate, I expected no substance on the economy. I got none. When ABC’s David Muir asked Vice President Kamala Harris whether Americans are better off today than they were four years ago, she avoided the question, opting instead to share just a little word salad on social policy issues that she has … Continue reading Getting touchy-feely on last night’s debate
Tonight’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will likely leave traders with more questions than answers about how each candidate will use Executive power under the Constitution to drive expansion in the economy. The top concern of most Americans is how each candidate proposes to put a car in every … Continue reading Other than munching on some popcorn, tonight’s debate shouldn’t bring much benefit to traders.
The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?
This is a crazy sounding observation, but the Democrats may do best on the economy because of their preference for a high tax regime. I am not a proponent of the modern monetary theory or high taxes. I am not a proponent of taxes at all, but there is something to the MMT argument that … Continue reading Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.
Yesterday, I visited the Federal Elections Commission’s website to take a look at the donation activity of primary dealers. Primary dealers are counterparties to trades initiated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York when the bank is conducting monetary policy for the Federal Reserve System. In an admittedly simplistic example, if the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Managing the Trump or Harris trade
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., suspended his candidacy last Friday after sharing with his supporters his belief that he saw no path to winning the Electoral College votes necessary for winning the presidency. In a speech announcing the suspension of his campaign, Mr. Kennedy shared the observation that, “In the name of saving democracy, the Democratic … Continue reading Was RFK, Jr. thrown under the bus to promote the new demographic order?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 