The big event this week, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, takes place on November 6 and 7. There is something else occurring on the 5th, but for the life of me, I cannot remember what it is. Here is a quick look at the data. Foreign exchange rates per the Board of Governors-Federal … Continue reading A quick look at elections, Federal Reserve, and Treasury data.
Exchange is memorialized by contract. That contract can settle between T+0 and T+ n. The contract summarizes the terms and conditions of the exchange. Government’s validity is optimized where it protects enforcement of the contract. A bank is a repository of contracts. An individual can look at themselves as a bank, sitting also on an … Continue reading An argument for private currency contracts.
Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …
It’s around 11:26 in the morning in Tokyo. Good morning. I am wishing Sydney an early good afternoon. It’s about 1:26 pm on your side of the world. Other than the Dallas Cowboys getting spanked by the San Francisco 49ers, there is nothing major to report. Wait a minute. There is an election to choose … Continue reading Good day, Australia and Japan. The American currency continues to strengthen …
NPR’s Ashley Lopez today published a piece discussing the possibility of neither Donald Trump or Kamala Harris receiving the required 270 votes from the Electoral College to be declared President-Elect. Ms. Lopez describes the process where if neither candidate receives the minimum 270 votes, then it would be up to at least 26 congressional delegations … Continue reading How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?
Just finished watching an insightful interview between Todd Sachs and Danielle DiMartino Booth via YouTube. Ms. DiMartino Booth is a renowned market analyst and commenter who brings an insider’s perspective to activity in the financial markets and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Ms. DiMartino Booth expressed concern about how home purchases used to be about … Continue reading Should we look at a mortgage like a forward contract?
For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …
Kamala Harris’ San Francisco posse needs to be replaced as evidenced by her interview just three hours ago with Fox News’ chief political anchor Bret Baier. There were at least three periods of contention during the interview generated by Mr Baier’s need to get in as many questions as possible before a hard wrap by … Continue reading Fox News: The Kamala Harris interview did not move markets
Should gross domestic product in part be a function of consumption? Professor Dave Collum argues that consumption is something you do after you have produced wealth; after you have produced something. My take on his position is that gross domestic product (output) would be equal to investment (capital) plus energy and effort. Expanding on Professor … Continue reading Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 