The bet … Over the weekend, I estimated the EUR/USD would be 1.1380 on Friday 2 May 2025. As of 10:27 pm AST, the spot rate is 1.1350, citing data from x-rates.com. Using the European Central Bank short-term rate of 2.169% and the U.S. 4-week Treasury rate of 4.23% as reported by the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Will the EUR/USD to be at 1.1380 on Friday? Will that change at mid-week?
Kugler speech missed the mark … On 22 April 2025, Federal Reserve Board governor Adriana D. Kugler gave a speech on the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. Governor Kugler explained how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) manages monetary policy by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make uncollateralized … Continue reading What Governor Kugler’s speech missed yesterday…
American traders have been showing their overall ignorance of politics in reaction to President Trump’s expressions of disgust with Jerome Powell’s approach to interbank rates. The chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has long pushed back against threats from the President to dismiss Mr. Powell from the chairmanship. Caselaw found … Continue reading Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST
Political power is about keeping the electorate in a state of belief. It is not about getting the electorate to a place of individual knowing and understanding. Individuals who know and understand have overcome fear and confronted the monster of scarcity that is spawned by our psyche. By arguing scarcity, power creates the idea that … Continue reading Traders should understand political narrative is about keeping you in a state of belief.
A Reuters article posted earlier last week discussed China’s desire to open up its exchange traded funds to Western market makers. The article mentions Citadel, an alternative investment manager, and Jane Street, a trading firm. According to Reuters: “Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licences (sic) and encouraged the development of … Continue reading Western banks doing business in China tells me there won’t be a kinetic war anytime soon.
The Bet Last week I made a bet that yesterday the EUR/USD would close between 1.0809 and 1.0931. The currency pair is at 1.1359 according to data from x-rates.com. I took it as a lesson that you have to analyze and incorporate policy news events into your predictions and go lateral, meaning taking in as … Continue reading A big ooops moment on the EUR/USD last week.
According to data from MarketWatch, the DOW, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up after 48 hours of onslaught of the markets. The price of gold and oil are also up as volatility measured by the VIX has decreased. I do not know how much of the turnaround is due to the reported 90-day pause … Continue reading Back to the Future: A quick post on mercantilism.
We are in a do-it-yourself world. More people will be interested in managing their own wealth which will include trading on their own. The middleman brokers will have to shift to providing insights versus mechanical services like opening accounts and creating churn by offering new products. I have grown suspect of the narrative that middlemen … Continue reading Trading: How to cut out the noise in a DIY world.
Should I bet against the euro? At 1.0959 and not too cheery attitude out of the Eastern Central Bank, maybe I should find a contract and take the sell side. Reuters cited ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel’s belief that Europe is facing structural headwinds exacerbated by a surge in uncertainty that could get worse with U.S. … Continue reading EUR/USD, the euro: Europe’s yearning for world war days does not impress me.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 