The Bet Last week I made a bet that yesterday the EUR/USD would close between 1.0809 and 1.0931. The currency pair is at 1.1359 according to data from x-rates.com. I took it as a lesson that you have to analyze and incorporate policy news events into your predictions and go lateral, meaning taking in as … Continue reading A big ooops moment on the EUR/USD last week.
According to data from MarketWatch, the DOW, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up after 48 hours of onslaught of the markets. The price of gold and oil are also up as volatility measured by the VIX has decreased. I do not know how much of the turnaround is due to the reported 90-day pause … Continue reading Back to the Future: A quick post on mercantilism.
We are in a do-it-yourself world. More people will be interested in managing their own wealth which will include trading on their own. The middleman brokers will have to shift to providing insights versus mechanical services like opening accounts and creating churn by offering new products. I have grown suspect of the narrative that middlemen … Continue reading Trading: How to cut out the noise in a DIY world.
Should I bet against the euro? At 1.0959 and not too cheery attitude out of the Eastern Central Bank, maybe I should find a contract and take the sell side. Reuters cited ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel’s belief that Europe is facing structural headwinds exacerbated by a surge in uncertainty that could get worse with U.S. … Continue reading EUR/USD, the euro: Europe’s yearning for world war days does not impress me.
For the past couple of years, I have been listening to the debate between the gold bugs and the crypto bros. After listening to the arguments, I came up with my own definition of money which I may have shared in the past. Money is energy plus sweat plus output. It is sound money where … Continue reading Are gold and crypto energy?
What I’m reading today: A Lawyer’s Perspective on U.S. Payment System Evolution and Money in the Digital Age. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In 2022, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published a paper authored by Jess Cheng and Joseph Torregrossa discussing the legal underpinnings of the payment … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market as of 1:00 pm AST: Thoughts on capturing legal risks in interest rates …
What we are reading … U.S. Treasury. Michael Faulkender. “Yesterday, the United States Senate confirmed Michael Faulkender to be the Deputy Secretary of the United States Department of the Treasury.” — U.S. Department of the Treasury. Note: Deputy Secretary Faulkender spent almost 17 years in academia, according to his LinkedIn profile. He also spent three … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan as of 1:39 pm AST: Is the PCE index keeping hindering progress to two-percent target?
What we are reading today … White House. Venezuela. Tariffs. “On or after April 2, 2025, a tariff of 25 percent may be imposed on all goods imported into the United States from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, whether directly from Venezuela or indirectly through third parties. Duties imposed by this order will be … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan as of 11:00 am AST: Trump’s tariffs on Venezuela appears to have little impact on the Eastern Caribbean; European money supply increases.
What we’re reading. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Alberto Musalem. Monetary policy. “St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem discussed the importance of the Fed’s regional structure and shared his views on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at an event in Paducah, Ky. He gave a speech, “Remarks on the U.S. Economic Outlook … Continue reading US-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan: American central bankers see drop off from Trump effect.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 