What the data is telling me … At 8:33 am today, I saw further slight strengthening in the US dollar against the euro and the yen. Data from Reuters evidenced declines from yesterday in the yields of ten-year bonds out of the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Japan. These declines told me that … Continue reading Is a recession around the corner?
The Middle Class may serve two masters … Real estate analyst Melody Wright made an observation today on the Julia La Roche Show that is in line with my thinking over the past few months. This economy, she noted, is becoming one where labor services the rich or the less fortunate. Restaurants, financial services, etc., … Continue reading The markets: It’s the exploding froth on the water that gives real information.
I just finished reading an article written by David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. In the article, Dr. Kelly shares his thoughts on what he describes as “the delicate health of the economic expansion.” Dr. Kelly estimates that gross domestic production may be viewed as stagnant based on GDP numbers due … Continue reading Investor protection: Why a trader should be wary of her broker’s knowledge of the economy.
The bet … Over the weekend, I estimated the EUR/USD would be 1.1380 on Friday 2 May 2025. As of 10:27 pm AST, the spot rate is 1.1350, citing data from x-rates.com. Using the European Central Bank short-term rate of 2.169% and the U.S. 4-week Treasury rate of 4.23% as reported by the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Will the EUR/USD to be at 1.1380 on Friday? Will that change at mid-week?
Kugler speech missed the mark … On 22 April 2025, Federal Reserve Board governor Adriana D. Kugler gave a speech on the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. Governor Kugler explained how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) manages monetary policy by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make uncollateralized … Continue reading What Governor Kugler’s speech missed yesterday…
American traders have been showing their overall ignorance of politics in reaction to President Trump’s expressions of disgust with Jerome Powell’s approach to interbank rates. The chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has long pushed back against threats from the President to dismiss Mr. Powell from the chairmanship. Caselaw found … Continue reading Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST
Political power is about keeping the electorate in a state of belief. It is not about getting the electorate to a place of individual knowing and understanding. Individuals who know and understand have overcome fear and confronted the monster of scarcity that is spawned by our psyche. By arguing scarcity, power creates the idea that … Continue reading Traders should understand political narrative is about keeping you in a state of belief.
A Reuters article posted earlier last week discussed China’s desire to open up its exchange traded funds to Western market makers. The article mentions Citadel, an alternative investment manager, and Jane Street, a trading firm. According to Reuters: “Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licences (sic) and encouraged the development of … Continue reading Western banks doing business in China tells me there won’t be a kinetic war anytime soon.
The Bet Last week I made a bet that yesterday the EUR/USD would close between 1.0809 and 1.0931. The currency pair is at 1.1359 according to data from x-rates.com. I took it as a lesson that you have to analyze and incorporate policy news events into your predictions and go lateral, meaning taking in as … Continue reading A big ooops moment on the EUR/USD last week.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 