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The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

As of 8:05 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $6.90 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $8.40 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.20 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing … Continue reading The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

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So far, a 98% chance the EUR/USD will close above 1.1025 this Friday

As of 6:12 pm EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $4.10 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $5.00 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $7.70 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.10 Contract closing … Continue reading So far, a 98% chance the EUR/USD will close above 1.1025 this Friday

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Binary options snapshot from the NADEX at 12:11 EST

Yesterday, I calculated today’s forward price for the EUR/USD at 1.1210. Reuters reported at 12:11 pm EST a EUR/USD price of 1.1143. The dollar has been strengthening since 9:33 am when the USD was priced at 1.1192, falling slightly to 1.1182 around 11:02 am. (Ready for your next trader challenge? Visit https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348) NADEX at 9:43 … Continue reading Binary options snapshot from the NADEX at 12:11 EST

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The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.

My back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.10. The probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1175 is priced at $7.20. At 9:36 am, Reuters priced the EUR/USD at 1.1210, an increase of 35 pips from yesterday’s 4:15 pm read of 1.1175. … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.

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The Interbank Markets: CFTC Warns Public of Imposter Scam Targeting Fraud Victims

May 14, 2025 WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is warning the public about a growing imposter scam involving individuals falsely claiming to represent the agency. Scammers are contacting members of the public and claiming to represent the CFTC Office of Inspector General. These imposters promise to help financial fraud victims recover lost funds from … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: CFTC Warns Public of Imposter Scam Targeting Fraud Victims

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The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

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The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?

The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?

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Acting Chairman Pham Statement on Court Sanctions Against CFTC

May 13, 2025 WASHINGTON, D.C. — Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham made the following statement regarding the Federal District Court report and recommendations for sanctions against the CFTC for misconduct in CFTC v. Traders Global Group Inc: “Americans rightly demand the highest level of conduct, candor, professionalism, and ethics from the federal government—especially law enforcement … Continue reading Acting Chairman Pham Statement on Court Sanctions Against CFTC

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Banks won this morning …

The takeaway: Be mindful of the information flow … Banks won this morning at 11:00. I calculated a forward delivery EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.1240 and expected a close at that time of above 1.1200, but the China-US decision to reduce tariff rates for 90 days gave the markets a boost. That boost strengthened demand … Continue reading Banks won this morning …