Category: USD/JPY

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Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?

In its quarterly report to Congress regarding its foreign exchange operations for the second quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury reported that there was no intervention in the foreign exchange markets. The U.S. dollar, as measured by its broad-weighted dollar index, depreciated 5.6%. Cumulatively, the dollar has depreciated 7.5% since the … Continue reading Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?

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Currency wars: Can the West afford an increasingly developed Africa, Asia, and Latin America?

The takeaway …. As I get ready for the release of the jobs report, a thought on the relationship between the world’s major geographic regions hit me. Do western nations, primarily the United States, the United Kingdom, and Eurozone, really want to see a developed Africa, Asia, or Latin America? Would development of these areas … Continue reading Currency wars: Can the West afford an increasingly developed Africa, Asia, and Latin America?

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The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

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Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST

American traders have been showing their overall ignorance of politics in reaction to President Trump’s expressions of disgust with Jerome Powell’s approach to interbank rates. The chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has long pushed back against threats from the President to dismiss Mr. Powell from the chairmanship. Caselaw found … Continue reading Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST

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Law, Interbank, and Money Markets: Has LIBOR price manipulation risk been replaced by SOFR volatility risk?

Law Review: Has LIBOR price manipulation risk been replaced by SOFR volatility risk? Investopedia, a finance news website, defines a reference rate as an interest rate benchmark designed to set other interest rates. Reference rates may be found in mortgage agreements and sophisticated mortgage rate swaps. They act as benchmarks for the performance of a … Continue reading Law, Interbank, and Money Markets: Has LIBOR price manipulation risk been replaced by SOFR volatility risk?

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Currency and money markets news scan: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults?

The takeaway: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults? Alejandro Riviera is upset today. He needs $200,000 per year in income in order to enjoy retirement with his wife, Anita, and the dog, Puff. Last week, with the two-year rate at 3.99%, Alejandro needed a portfolio of $5,012,531 to generate his … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults?

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Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”

The takeaway: Trump wants a balanced budget, but half the work is already done. 15 USC § 3101(b)(2) lists as one of the goals for economic growth a balanced budget. Specifically, the section reads: “(2) Aggregate monetary and fiscal policies alone have been unable to achieve full employment and production, increased real income, balanced growth, … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”

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Currency and money markets news scan: Positioning ourselves to benefit from a rebuild of Ukraine infrastructure.

The takeaway: Turning the Ukraine-Russia war into a play on infrastructure. Among my general thesis about government is that it plays a role in making a market. In the 1700s and 1800s, the United States was in essence a realtor, selling land to settlers who promised to develop the vast territory of the United States. … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Positioning ourselves to benefit from a rebuild of Ukraine infrastructure.