Uncategorized – Page 7 – Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets.

November 28, 2024

The Interbank Market: Decreasing amount of bitcoin meets liquidity crunch.

Liquidity Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s nascent DeFi scene is getting a lot of excitement, with proponents saying that it will ultimately unlock more than $1 trillion in idle capital that currently does nothing more than act as a store of value. Analytics Insight. Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s price trajectory has reached new heights, nearly hitting the $100,000 mark post-election, … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Decreasing amount of bitcoin meets liquidity crunch.

November 25, 2024November 25, 2024

Interbank and Liquidity News Scan: African leaders still show enthusiasm for China even as financing has decreased.

Media Scan Tether. Cryptocurrency. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is in talks to deepen his financial ties with the company operating the world’s largest stablecoin, Tether, by launching a $2 billion project to lend dollars to clients against bitcoin, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. Reuters. Foreign exchange. Fund inflows. America’s … Continue reading Interbank and Liquidity News Scan: African leaders still show enthusiasm for China even as financing has decreased.

November 4, 2024

A quick look at elections, Federal Reserve, and Treasury data.

The big event this week, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, takes place on November 6 and 7. There is something else occurring on the 5th, but for the life of me, I cannot remember what it is. Here is a quick look at the data. Foreign exchange rates per the Board of Governors-Federal … Continue reading A quick look at elections, Federal Reserve, and Treasury data.

November 2, 2024November 2, 2024

An argument for private currency contracts.

Exchange is memorialized by contract. That contract can settle between T+0 and T+ n. The contract summarizes the terms and conditions of the exchange. Government’s validity is optimized where it protects enforcement of the contract. A bank is a repository of contracts. An individual can look at themselves as a bank, sitting also on an … Continue reading An argument for private currency contracts.

October 29, 2024

Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

October 22, 2024

How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?

NPR’s Ashley Lopez today published a piece discussing the possibility of neither Donald Trump or Kamala Harris receiving the required 270 votes from the Electoral College to be declared President-Elect. Ms. Lopez describes the process where if neither candidate receives the minimum 270 votes, then it would be up to at least 26 congressional delegations … Continue reading How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?

October 1, 2024

Israel v Iran: The foreign exchange market is telling me to cool it.

Today, at 7:06 am EST, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.1094. This reflected a price decrease from the 1.1143 price from yesterday. My take on the euro is that there appears to be less demand for it, not only based on its price but on a consumer expectations survey from the European Central Bank last … Continue reading Israel v Iran: The foreign exchange market is telling me to cool it.

September 5, 2024

Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

September 5, 2024

Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.

This is a crazy sounding observation, but the Democrats may do best on the economy because of their preference for a high tax regime. I am not a proponent of the modern monetary theory or high taxes. I am not a proponent of taxes at all, but there is something to the MMT argument that … Continue reading Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.