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Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …

From my trading desk … FX Street is reporting today that traders of the EUR/USD should expect continued slides in the euro. I concur in their assessment given what I saw in the charts on the NADEX from 10:00 am yesterday morning to 11:00 pm that evening. The EUR/USD went from a close of 1.16375 … Continue reading Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …

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Legal risks: Trump is getting the weakened dollar he wants. Does he have cause for removing Powell?

12 USC Sec. 242 says the following about the eligibility, selection, and removal of a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Hold tight. It’s a mouthful: “The members of the Board shall be ineligible during the time they are in office and for two years thereafter to hold any office, position, … Continue reading Legal risks: Trump is getting the weakened dollar he wants. Does he have cause for removing Powell?

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Binary options: Mitigating risks from information barriers in the foreign exchange markets.

When trading binary options, I am trading my expectations on certain events. I am entering contracts where one side of the contract has an expectation of some event, x, occurring and the other side of the contract has an expectation of some event, y, occurring. I am not trading a commodity, share, or currency. I … Continue reading Binary options: Mitigating risks from information barriers in the foreign exchange markets.

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Why should you care about what others are betting in the markets?

Are markets valid? Lately I have been questioning the validity of markets, specifically whether markets are the result of organic interactions between humans or whether markets are State-constructed funnels for moving portions of monetary energy from consumers to the government via taxes. I have to be mindful that markets are not some linear, mechanical construct … Continue reading Why should you care about what others are betting in the markets?

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Binary options: Eyes on the Global South. Not too surprised about last night’s EUR/USD close.

I am going to start paying more attention to the Global South. I flirted with what is happening in the Caribbean and Africa regarding their currencies and central banks and it is time to do so again. Granted, their currencies are considered by the west to be “exotic” pairs, but you cannot ignore the shifts we are seeing particularly on the Continent. Continue reading Binary options: Eyes on the Global South. Not too surprised about last night’s EUR/USD close.

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Federal Reserve: Is understanding the Fed that difficult or even useful?

The Federal Reserve as narrative promoter … While not a political organization, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System as an agent of the Congress, is responsible for crafting a narrative around the soundness of the United States currency. The centerpiece of the soundness narrative is found in 12 USC 225(a) where Congress … Continue reading Federal Reserve: Is understanding the Fed that difficult or even useful?

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The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …

Today’s takeaway … US tariff policy still in limbo. If the dollar strengthened after yesterday’s court decision that the President’s tariffs were the result of a misapplication of trade law, that strengthening was short-lived in light of today’s appellate ruling that keeps the President’s tariffs in play for now. (Ready for your next trader challenge? … Continue reading The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …

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The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

As of 8:05 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $6.90 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $8.40 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.20 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing … Continue reading The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.