Category: traders

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The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …

Today’s takeaway … US tariff policy still in limbo. If the dollar strengthened after yesterday’s court decision that the President’s tariffs were the result of a misapplication of trade law, that strengthening was short-lived in light of today’s appellate ruling that keeps the President’s tariffs in play for now. (Ready for your next trader challenge? … Continue reading The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …

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I don’t think Trump wants to withdraw from the globe. Currency outlooks should reflect this.

Calling Trump’s bluff … European and British banks have been and still are collateralizing Africa and Asia for centuries. Since the mid 1940s, the United States has been providing the military and mercenary duties necessary for protecting European and British extraction of resources from these areas of the world. (Ready to step up your trading … Continue reading I don’t think Trump wants to withdraw from the globe. Currency outlooks should reflect this.

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A big move in the EUR/USD as the US government addresses fiscal concerns …

The data is scary … As of 7:08 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $9.30 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.90 I calculated a forward … Continue reading A big move in the EUR/USD as the US government addresses fiscal concerns …

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The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

As of 8:05 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $6.90 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $8.40 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.20 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing … Continue reading The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

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The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

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The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?

The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?