Category: traders

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Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

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How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?

NPR’s Ashley Lopez today published a piece discussing the possibility of neither Donald Trump or Kamala Harris receiving the required 270 votes from the Electoral College to be declared President-Elect. Ms. Lopez describes the process where if neither candidate receives the minimum 270 votes, then it would be up to at least 26 congressional delegations … Continue reading How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?

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Should we look at a mortgage like a forward contract?

Just finished watching an insightful interview between Todd Sachs and Danielle DiMartino Booth via YouTube. Ms. DiMartino Booth is a renowned market analyst and commenter who brings an insider’s perspective to activity in the financial markets and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Ms. DiMartino Booth expressed concern about how home purchases used to be about … Continue reading Should we look at a mortgage like a forward contract?

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Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.

Should gross domestic product in part be a function of consumption? Professor Dave Collum argues that consumption is something you do after you have produced wealth; after you have produced something. My take on his position is that gross domestic product (output) would be equal to investment (capital) plus energy and effort. Expanding on Professor … Continue reading Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.

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The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

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Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

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Utilities did not escape the markets worries about the economy.

Southern Company reported that its stock price fell to $86.57, down $2.01, or 2.27%. That was in line with the decrease in the S&P Utilities Select Sector Index which fell approximately 2.69% from 751.69 to 731.47. The markets are reportedly spooked by perceived slowdown in the economy and the possibility that companies pushing artificial intelligence … Continue reading Utilities did not escape the markets worries about the economy.