Category: traders

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Interbank and Liquidity News Scan: Kashkari is open to a December rate cut.

Kashkari. Interest rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, typically on the hawkish end of the U.S. central bank’s policy spectrum, said on Monday he is open to cutting interest rates again next month. Reuters. Trump. Tariffs. Markets. The dollar rallied on Tuesday, while European shares fell, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pledged tariffs on … Continue reading Interbank and Liquidity News Scan: Kashkari is open to a December rate cut.

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Interbank market and liquidity flow scan: The pound firms up against the dollar.

Media scan British pound. US dollar. Scott Bessent. Sterling was on track to snap a three-day losing streak on Monday, as the dollar’s slide after the selection of fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary lent support to most major currency pairs. Reuters. U.S. dollar. The dollar retreated on Monday after a stellar run … Continue reading Interbank market and liquidity flow scan: The pound firms up against the dollar.

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Interbank and Liquidity News Scan: African leaders still show enthusiasm for China even as financing has decreased.

Media Scan Tether. Cryptocurrency. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is in talks to deepen his financial ties with the company operating the world’s largest stablecoin, Tether, by launching a $2 billion project to lend dollars to clients against bitcoin, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. Reuters. Foreign exchange. Fund inflows. America’s … Continue reading Interbank and Liquidity News Scan: African leaders still show enthusiasm for China even as financing has decreased.

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Trump forgets that as head of state, he is responsible for expanding it.

In this video, some rich bros from the All-In Podcast are waxing philosophical about the likely positive impact a Trump presidency will have on markets including the equity and crypto markets. There is the usual narrative about how a lighter touch, deregulatory scheme will create growth in the markets as well as in economic output. … Continue reading Trump forgets that as head of state, he is responsible for expanding it.

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Growth in money supply is relatively flat, but is money more expensive?

Between September 2023 and September 2024, M2 money supply went from approximately $18,110.3 billion to $18,151.4 billion, according to data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This amounted to a decrease in money supply of 2.17%. During that period, the money supply dipped as low as $17,923.3 billion in February 2024. … Continue reading Growth in money supply is relatively flat, but is money more expensive?

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Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

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How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?

NPR’s Ashley Lopez today published a piece discussing the possibility of neither Donald Trump or Kamala Harris receiving the required 270 votes from the Electoral College to be declared President-Elect. Ms. Lopez describes the process where if neither candidate receives the minimum 270 votes, then it would be up to at least 26 congressional delegations … Continue reading How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?

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Should we look at a mortgage like a forward contract?

Just finished watching an insightful interview between Todd Sachs and Danielle DiMartino Booth via YouTube. Ms. DiMartino Booth is a renowned market analyst and commenter who brings an insider’s perspective to activity in the financial markets and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Ms. DiMartino Booth expressed concern about how home purchases used to be about … Continue reading Should we look at a mortgage like a forward contract?

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Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.

Should gross domestic product in part be a function of consumption? Professor Dave Collum argues that consumption is something you do after you have produced wealth; after you have produced something. My take on his position is that gross domestic product (output) would be equal to investment (capital) plus energy and effort. Expanding on Professor … Continue reading Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.