Today is a slow day but a telling one. At 10:00 this morning, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was at 48.7, lower than the consensus of 49. At 10:09, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimum Index was down to 48.7 from a previous 50.0. When the ISM Manufacturing PMI is above 50, that indicates that the manufacturer is … Continue reading I sold two EUR/USD contracts at $0.20 …
Over the weekend, I spoke to my contacts in the banking industry trying to get a feel for banker sentiments on the Fed’s interest rate policy. The sentiments boiled down to the banks taking whatever the Fed decides in stride. As one contact put it, it’s about the money and the banks will take what … Continue reading Could it be more about where the banks want to go versus where traders think the Fed wants to go?
I have been listening for the past hour or so to Emad Mostaque, the founder of Intelligent Internet, discuss among other things how money will evolve in terms of use and creation in an artificial intelligence world. I decided to tune in after doing a little prior contemplation on my own as to how currencies … Continue reading The problem government faces from AI and crypto is the validation of its own currency.
Last night I committed the unholy error of trading a period outside of my plan. I trade binary options on the EUR/USD from Tuesday to Thursday. I trade for either the 11:00 am expiry or the 3:00 pm expiry. Last night I was up looking at the data coming through the NADEX and thought I … Continue reading Binary options: Tempted to jump in and trade but will stick to my plan.
In its quarterly report to Congress regarding its foreign exchange operations for the second quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury reported that there was no intervention in the foreign exchange markets. The U.S. dollar, as measured by its broad-weighted dollar index, depreciated 5.6%. Cumulatively, the dollar has depreciated 7.5% since the … Continue reading Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?
There is ongoing concern of a threat by the Executive Branch to the independence of the Federal Reserve System, specifically influence by the Executive Office of the President on the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee on monetary policy. I do not think the issue is political threats to the independence of the … Continue reading It is less about political interference with the Fed and more about the degree of interference.
Like you, I am suspect of the gurus crawling all over YouTube talking about trade set-ups, coming nefariously close to guaranteeing a certain level of returns on your trade accounts, showing their trading screens, or trying to sell “free training.” How do you increase the chances that you are dealing with a reputable advisor? If … Continue reading What is a commodity trading advisor?
As I write, the EUR/USD is at 1.17139. The EUR/USD has been increasing since 4:00 am when it read 1.16823. All eyes are on Anchorage, Alaska as U.S. president Donald Trump is set to meet Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin to discuss a resolution of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not … Continue reading As the USD continues to weaken, what does Trump get out of mediating a Russia-Ukraine peace deal?
From my events contracts trading desk … As we get closer to the meeting tomorrow between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US president Donald J. Trump, the euro tapered off some of the strengthening I saw from around 4:00 am this morning. The EUR/USD was at 1.16686 and by the close of the 6 am … Continue reading A quiet day at the CFTC and in the markets as well …
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 