Kugler speech missed the mark … On 22 April 2025, Federal Reserve Board governor Adriana D. Kugler gave a speech on the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. Governor Kugler explained how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) manages monetary policy by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make uncollateralized … Continue reading What Governor Kugler’s speech missed yesterday…
U.S. Treasury rates Yesterday, the two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates moved down between 9:00 am this morning and 4:30 pm. According to Treasury data, the one-month rate stayed relatively the same, moving from 4.29% to 4.28%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.55% to 4.53%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.77% to 4.76%. Board … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Certain overnight rates see an uptick.
U.S. Treasury rates The one-month, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates moved down between 9:00 am this morning and 4:30 pm this afternoon. According to Treasury data, the one-month rate stayed relatively the same, moving from 4.38% to 4.37%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.62% to 4.52%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.83% to 4.72%. … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Not much change in Federal Reserve Bank of New York reference rates.
At 7:00 am EST, EUR/USD opened at 1.03017 and closed at 1.03052. I have to wonder how much news leaked about the strength of today’s jobs situation report. By the beginning of the eight o’clock hour of trade, EUR/USD had fallen to 1.0257 and continued to fall further to 1.02524. OMB Statistical Policy Directive 4 … Continue reading Are government agencies following their own embargoes?
NADEX, a binary options exchange platform, has an events contract posted with a buy price of $.98 on the EUR/USD exceeding 1.0275 by the end of this coming week. Assuming the Federal Open Market Committee does not make any changes to the federal funds rate, discount window, and interest on reserve balances, I estimate that … Continue reading I see EUR/USD exceeding 1.0275 by this Friday
Today, at 7:06 am EST, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.1094. This reflected a price decrease from the 1.1143 price from yesterday. My take on the euro is that there appears to be less demand for it, not only based on its price but on a consumer expectations survey from the European Central Bank last … Continue reading Israel v Iran: The foreign exchange market is telling me to cool it.
This is a crazy sounding observation, but the Democrats may do best on the economy because of their preference for a high tax regime. I am not a proponent of the modern monetary theory or high taxes. I am not a proponent of taxes at all, but there is something to the MMT argument that … Continue reading Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.
Trade is an inappropriate word. As I shared in an earlier post, we are exchanging things that we own, but making bets on value that we can claim sometime in the future. We trade our expectations on growth. Continue reading Trade is an inappropriate word…
United States. Federal Reserve System. The dollar. Covered interest rate parity. Swaps. Christopher J Waller. ” … there has, for some time, been commentary predicting that the dollar is destined for demise—potentially an imminent demise. Such predictions have not materialized. However, the role of the United States in the world economy is changing, and finance … Continue reading Retail foreign exchange trader news scan as of 1:30pm AST, Vice-chair Jefferson’s speech focuses on housing policy.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 