Polymarket, an event market, has the probability of a Donald Trump victory this November priced at $.59. This translates to a .59 probability of a win against presumptive Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, whose probability of winning is priced at $.39. The spread between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris is tighter on another well-known platform, … Continue reading Is Kamala Harris a liberal? Maybe. A statist? Yes.
It is tough to nail down Ms. Harris’ view on the currency and interest rates since Mr. Biden’s announcement three days ago that he was discontinuing his campaign for a second term. So far, her outreach efforts have included a couple speeches to black sororities, a meet and greet with her campaign staff in Wilmington, … Continue reading In the immediate term, the next president will have to think about who the next Fed chair will be.
Employment will be on the minds of the financial press between now and 2 August when the jobs situation report data is released. Between now and then, two unemployment claims reports will be released and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System would have made their decision on the federal funds rate. The … Continue reading Threat to democracy? How about messaging on the threat to employment
At 2:27 pm EST, we are waiting for Vice-President Harris to deliver remarks in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Real Clear Politics has Ms. Harris at 46.6% in the polls while former president Donald J. Trump is polling at 48.5%. The prediction markets have shown incremental upward change in Ms Harris’ favor since earlier this morning. Polymarket has … Continue reading What did Kamala Harris say today, and did it move the polls and prediction markets?
The buy price for a Donald Trump victory this November is $.58, according to political market site, PredictIt. Kamala Harris has a lesser chance of winning, with her buy price at $.44. That price has increased $.02 since around 9:18 am. The price likely jumped as Ms. Harris continued to pick up more endorsements. Another … Continue reading Kamala Harris v Donald Trump: At 11:25 am, what are the betting markets saying?
Bloomberg yesterday reported that 44 million black women raised $1.5 million for Vice-President Kamala Harris within a three-hour period. Among the supporters were Bernice King, daughter of the late Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr; U.S. Representative Maxine Waters, Democrat of California; U.S. Representative Joyce Beatty, Democrat of Ohio; and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, Democrat of … Continue reading Reassessing the strength of Black support for Kamala Harris.
Donald Trump’s criticism of labor unions last week at the Republican national convention apparently gave unions further license to support the Democrats. That support, due to a decision by President Joe Biden to not pursue his party’s nomination for a second term, has passed directly to Kamala Harris. Today, the AFL-CIO unanimously endorsed Ms. Harris … Continue reading Kamala Harris strengthens her street cred with labor. Gets support of the AFL-CIO.
I visited kamalaharris.com today to find out more specifics as to Vice-President Harris’ position on banking or any other issues she deemed important to her campaign. To say her website is lacking would be an understatement. If you are ready to make donations, her site, as situated, is for you. Also, if you are willing … Continue reading Kamala Harris isn’t ready to share her independent ideas … yet
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 