For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …
I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by 3:00 pm Friday, 4 October 2024. My initial assessment is based on the German bund 10-year yield of 2.135% and a U.S. 10-year bond yield of 3.756%, per MarketWatch. Per X-rates.com, the current EUR/USD is 1.1166 as of 9:59 pm EST. (Interested in proprietary trading? Determine … Continue reading I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by weekend. That could change, of course.
Between 9:02 am and 11:26 am, the CME FedWatch tool reflected an increase in the chances that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase the federal funds target range by 50-basis points. Traders expect a 61% chance of a 50-point increase. Chances of a 25-point increase has slipped to 39% at the time of this … Continue reading Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.
The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.
The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?
This is a crazy sounding observation, but the Democrats may do best on the economy because of their preference for a high tax regime. I am not a proponent of the modern monetary theory or high taxes. I am not a proponent of taxes at all, but there is something to the MMT argument that … Continue reading Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.
So, a trader is sitting on a portfolio valued at USD1 million. Thirty percent of the portfolio is allocated to Treasurys; 25% to equities; 25% to gold; and 20% to real estate. They turn on their televisions and listen to an asset manager hustling her book that inflation is going to further whittle away at … Continue reading Connecting portfolio management to the Fed
Time Range Change in Money Supply Change in Personal Consumption Expenditure Change in Effective Federal Funds Rate January 2023 to January 2024 +9.66% +2.5% +23.09% February 2023 to February 2024 +10.81% +2.5% +16.63% March 2023 to March 2024 +5.59% +2.7% +10.35% April 2023 to April 2024 +3.26% +2.7% +10.35% May 2023 to May 2024 +2.79% … Continue reading Nationalist versus globalist. An activist investor treatment of government.
Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Foreign exchange rates: USD/XCD=2.7000 EUR/XCD=2.8881 GBP/XCD=3.4127 Monetary policy tools: Discount rate: 3.0% Call rate: 2.4% Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. Government of St. Kitts and Nevis 45 Year Government Bond. Maturity Date: 18 April 2057. Interest rate: 1.50%. 20 Year Government Bond. Maturity Date: 18 April 2032. Interest rate: 3.00% Source: … Continue reading Eastern Caribbean Central Bank and St. Kitts-Nevis commercial bank rates as of 2:39 pm AST
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 