The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.
The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?
The Middle Class may serve two masters … Real estate analyst Melody Wright made an observation today on the Julia La Roche Show that is in line with my thinking over the past few months. This economy, she noted, is becoming one where labor services the rich or the less fortunate. Restaurants, financial services, etc., … Continue reading The markets: It’s the exploding froth on the water that gives real information.
Kugler speech missed the mark … On 22 April 2025, Federal Reserve Board governor Adriana D. Kugler gave a speech on the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. Governor Kugler explained how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) manages monetary policy by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make uncollateralized … Continue reading What Governor Kugler’s speech missed yesterday…
American traders have been showing their overall ignorance of politics in reaction to President Trump’s expressions of disgust with Jerome Powell’s approach to interbank rates. The chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has long pushed back against threats from the President to dismiss Mr. Powell from the chairmanship. Caselaw found … Continue reading Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST
Political power is about keeping the electorate in a state of belief. It is not about getting the electorate to a place of individual knowing and understanding. Individuals who know and understand have overcome fear and confronted the monster of scarcity that is spawned by our psyche. By arguing scarcity, power creates the idea that … Continue reading Traders should understand political narrative is about keeping you in a state of belief.
A Reuters article posted earlier last week discussed China’s desire to open up its exchange traded funds to Western market makers. The article mentions Citadel, an alternative investment manager, and Jane Street, a trading firm. According to Reuters: “Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licences (sic) and encouraged the development of … Continue reading Western banks doing business in China tells me there won’t be a kinetic war anytime soon.
What I’m reading today: A Lawyer’s Perspective on U.S. Payment System Evolution and Money in the Digital Age. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In 2022, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published a paper authored by Jess Cheng and Joseph Torregrossa discussing the legal underpinnings of the payment … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market as of 1:00 pm AST: Thoughts on capturing legal risks in interest rates …
What we are reading … U.S. Treasury. Michael Faulkender. “Yesterday, the United States Senate confirmed Michael Faulkender to be the Deputy Secretary of the United States Department of the Treasury.” — U.S. Department of the Treasury. Note: Deputy Secretary Faulkender spent almost 17 years in academia, according to his LinkedIn profile. He also spent three … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan as of 1:39 pm AST: Is the PCE index keeping hindering progress to two-percent target?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 