On this first impression I expect both chambers of Congress to make the supposed banking crisis less of an issue especially as we move further into the campaign season. Congress, particularly congressional Democrats, do not want to be perceived as facilitators of a worsening political economy. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Rates on Treasurys continue to inch up in week prior to Fed Day
The takeaway: Joe Biden announces his re-election bid. Today, U.S. President Joseph R. Biden announced his candidacy for president in 2024. Since taking office in January 2021, Mr Biden has for the most part steered clear of adding onerous regulation to the banking sector. On the contrary, his infrastructure legislation and the spending that flows … Continue reading Interbank Market Scan: Latest Federal Reserve, Treasury rates of interest … and Joe Biden announces his re-election bid.
Over the next twelve months, as rates fall any cheerleading about an economic upturn should be tempered by a narrative that a close eye is being kept on the economy and that disciplined expenditures are being made to keep moderate winds blowing into the economy’s sails. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Betting markets see the effective federal funds rate dropping and that the Fed will not hike rates.
Should Mr Biden speak specifically to the inflation report, I expect that he will give some amount of credit to his inflation reduction and infrastructure initiatives that he has been implementing over the past two years. In theory, fiscal spending usually takes 18 months to move through the economy. Inflation, however, is a monetary phenomenon where there is an increase in money supply and not enough production in the economy to absorb the money supply. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Inflation slows. Expect Biden to take a victory lap.
I would think that given the U.S. economy runs on a fractional reserve platform that the Administration and the Congress would politely opine more on monetary policy. The Administration and the Congress appear to prefer the “kick the can across Pennsylvania Avenue and down Constitution Avenue” approach to monetary policy, mentioning it only when it is time to deflect criticisms on his handling of the economy. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: No political rhetoric today that impacts the overnight markets in the U.S.
The irony is that the wrong capital allocation decisions could result in the evaporation of the income generating asset. The asset itself may have to be sold to pay off the debt that has been used to sustain the borrower. Failure to acknowledge the event of paying the balloon payment with the sale of the asset makes the “generational wealth” political argument proffered by some low-income and unbanked advocacy groups sound asinine. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: The Asset-less Shall Inherit the Earth
Why not amend the Federal Reserve Act so that depositors can create and enter their own overnight market where they authorize the exchange of funds at some rate agreed to by depositors? Rather than risk less than optimal participation in the digital currency system including the risk that black markets for US currency are created, the government and the Federal Reserve could consider such an incentive system. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Incentivizing the market for a CBDC.
Mr Biden may have missed an opportunity to craft a narrative that emphasizes the importance of getting ahead of the inflationary impact of blocks of emerging economies threatening to transition from the US dollar to resource-backed currencies. These threats have yet to materialize into something definitive and until then the inflationary impact of dumping the US dollar or at least complementing it with other currencies is a way off. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: The jobs report wraps up the Holy Week.
The Federal Reserve would like to see a looser employment market, including reduced wage pressure and an uptick in unemployment. If these measures do not work to control inflation into 2024, more intrusive measures targeting consumer spending are anticipated. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: NFA issues rule to protect against manipulating bitcoin and ether prices.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 