Category: interbank market

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Interbank market and liquidity flow scan: The pound firms up against the dollar.

Media scan British pound. US dollar. Scott Bessent. Sterling was on track to snap a three-day losing streak on Monday, as the dollar’s slide after the selection of fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary lent support to most major currency pairs. Reuters. U.S. dollar. The dollar retreated on Monday after a stellar run … Continue reading Interbank market and liquidity flow scan: The pound firms up against the dollar.

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Trump forgets that as head of state, he is responsible for expanding it.

In this video, some rich bros from the All-In Podcast are waxing philosophical about the likely positive impact a Trump presidency will have on markets including the equity and crypto markets. There is the usual narrative about how a lighter touch, deregulatory scheme will create growth in the markets as well as in economic output. … Continue reading Trump forgets that as head of state, he is responsible for expanding it.

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Will the new administration apply Project 2025 reforms to the Federal Reserve?

Today is Fed Day, when the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting on the state of the U.S. economy and issues its decision on the appropriate rates for regulating the interbank market. 12 USC 225(a) requires that: “The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee … Continue reading Will the new administration apply Project 2025 reforms to the Federal Reserve?

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When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …

For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …

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I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by weekend. That could change, of course.

I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by 3:00 pm Friday, 4 October 2024. My initial assessment is based on the German bund 10-year yield of 2.135% and a U.S. 10-year bond yield of 3.756%, per MarketWatch. Per X-rates.com, the current EUR/USD is 1.1166 as of 9:59 pm EST. (Interested in proprietary trading? Determine … Continue reading I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by weekend. That could change, of course.

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Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.

Between 9:02 am and 11:26 am, the CME FedWatch tool reflected an increase in the chances that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase the federal funds target range by 50-basis points. Traders expect a 61% chance of a 50-point increase. Chances of a 25-point increase has slipped to 39% at the time of this … Continue reading Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.

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The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

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Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?