Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York July 18, 2025 “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) today released its renewed Statement of Commitment to the FX Global Code (Code). The Code, which was initially published May 2017, is a set of global principles of good practice in the foreign exchange market, developed to provide a … Continue reading Renewed Statement of Commitment to the FX Global Code
At 8:27 am, I posted on X that it looks like the market expects a good PPI report. The price was 1.15954. Around 7:41 am the price was 1.16107. The dollar was enjoying some strengthening. But alas, at 8:30 am, we saw a spike in the EUR/USD at 1.16062. By 8:31, the price was at … Continue reading The Producer Price Index is unchanged for the month of June
Back on 7 July, the EUR/USD spot price was at 1.17802 around 8:09 am. I had determined a forward rate of 1.1775 for 9 July 2025. At 7:02 am, the EUR/USD was at 1.17029 and I recalculated the forward rate for this Friday at 1.1701. The spot price is the price in the marketplace at … Continue reading As we await the FOMC minutes, EUR/USD shows some dollar strengthening.
I bought a EUR/USD contract speculating on a close above 1.1700 by 11 am this morning. At 11:00 am, the EUR/USD price at expiration was 1.17385. Tariff uncertainty dominated the media scuttlebutt as markets kept all eyes on President Trump’s letter writing campaign. According to CBS News, Mr. Trump was to send tariff increase letters … Continue reading Binary options: Did Trump’s tariff letters upset the EUR/USD?
President Trump has not yet posted on whitehouse.gov his pleasure with today’s jobs situation report. He likely said something on Truth Social, but I am just about up to here with social media so I will wait on Mr. Trump to use the public channels for expressing his glee. The report out of the U.S. … Continue reading Binary options: What I expect Trump to say about the jobs report.
Edward Dowd of Phinance Technologies made an interesting point yesterday on the YouTube show Palisades Gold Radio when he shared the following: “Inside information is transmitted quickly. Markets tell me more than what my leaders tell me.” When people ask me what sources of political information I follow, I tell them that I don’t do … Continue reading Binary options: Media and government pronouncements coming off more like echoes of the markets.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target range for the effective federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. The FOMC reiterated its intent to stay focused on the incoming data. This data would include information on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international developments. What I … Continue reading Nothing surprising about the Fed’s decision. More surprises in FX at 2:00 pm.
Leave it to President Trump to cause a market mover in the EUR/USD yesterday when he shared that he was not in the mood to negotiate with Iran. According to FXStreet, a financial media publication, the President’s sentiments helped drive the EUR/USD below 1.1500 indicating a move to safe-haven assets including, ironically, the US dollar. … Continue reading U.S., Israel, and Iran: Yesterday’s 3pm EUR/USD expiry at 1.14794 took me for a loop.
Betting that the EUR/USD closes above 1.1520 by 3pm today seems like a very conservative bet. The spot around 4:20 am was 1.1582 and I calculated a forward price for tomorrow at 1.1860, so why so bloody conservative? In short, the events in Western Asia aka the Middle East are hard to ascertain in terms … Continue reading Binary options: My conservative bet on a EUR/USD close above 1.1520 by 3pm today.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 