My back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.10. The probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1175 is priced at $7.20. At 9:36 am, Reuters priced the EUR/USD at 1.1210, an increase of 35 pips from yesterday’s 4:15 pm read of 1.1175. … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.
The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.
The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?
The takeaway: Be mindful of the information flow … Banks won this morning at 11:00. I calculated a forward delivery EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.1240 and expected a close at that time of above 1.1200, but the China-US decision to reduce tariff rates for 90 days gave the markets a boost. That boost strengthened demand … Continue reading Banks won this morning …
Scammers are on the prowl … As more individuals explore the idea of trading for themselves, the high fail rate for retail traders is compounded by the number of scam artists seeking to take advantage of novice and savvy traders alike. The following is an excerpt from an article published by the Commodity Futures Trading … Continue reading Binary options trading: How to spot the scammer.
What the data is telling me … At 8:33 am today, I saw further slight strengthening in the US dollar against the euro and the yen. Data from Reuters evidenced declines from yesterday in the yields of ten-year bonds out of the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Japan. These declines told me that … Continue reading Is a recession around the corner?
The Middle Class may serve two masters … Real estate analyst Melody Wright made an observation today on the Julia La Roche Show that is in line with my thinking over the past few months. This economy, she noted, is becoming one where labor services the rich or the less fortunate. Restaurants, financial services, etc., … Continue reading The markets: It’s the exploding froth on the water that gives real information.
I just finished reading an article written by David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. In the article, Dr. Kelly shares his thoughts on what he describes as “the delicate health of the economic expansion.” Dr. Kelly estimates that gross domestic production may be viewed as stagnant based on GDP numbers due … Continue reading Investor protection: Why a trader should be wary of her broker’s knowledge of the economy.
The bet … Over the weekend, I estimated the EUR/USD would be 1.1380 on Friday 2 May 2025. As of 10:27 pm AST, the spot rate is 1.1350, citing data from x-rates.com. Using the European Central Bank short-term rate of 2.169% and the U.S. 4-week Treasury rate of 4.23% as reported by the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Will the EUR/USD to be at 1.1380 on Friday? Will that change at mid-week?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 