Category: foreign exchange

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Binary options: Media and government pronouncements coming off more like echoes of the markets.

Edward Dowd of Phinance Technologies made an interesting point yesterday on the YouTube show Palisades Gold Radio when he shared the following: “Inside information is transmitted quickly. Markets tell me more than what my leaders tell me.” When people ask me what sources of political information I follow, I tell them that I don’t do … Continue reading Binary options: Media and government pronouncements coming off more like echoes of the markets.

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Nothing surprising about the Fed’s decision. More surprises in FX at 2:00 pm.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target range for the effective federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. The FOMC reiterated its intent to stay focused on the incoming data. This data would include information on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international developments. What I … Continue reading Nothing surprising about the Fed’s decision. More surprises in FX at 2:00 pm.

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U.S., Israel, and Iran: Yesterday’s 3pm EUR/USD expiry at 1.14794 took me for a loop.

Leave it to President Trump to cause a market mover in the EUR/USD yesterday when he shared that he was not in the mood to negotiate with Iran. According to FXStreet, a financial media publication, the President’s sentiments helped drive the EUR/USD below 1.1500 indicating a move to safe-haven assets including, ironically, the US dollar. … Continue reading U.S., Israel, and Iran: Yesterday’s 3pm EUR/USD expiry at 1.14794 took me for a loop.

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Binary options: My conservative bet on a EUR/USD close above 1.1520 by 3pm today.

Betting that the EUR/USD closes above 1.1520 by 3pm today seems like a very conservative bet. The spot around 4:20 am was 1.1582 and I calculated a forward price for tomorrow at 1.1860, so why so bloody conservative? In short, the events in Western Asia aka the Middle East are hard to ascertain in terms … Continue reading Binary options: My conservative bet on a EUR/USD close above 1.1520 by 3pm today.

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Binary options: Mitigating risks from information barriers in the foreign exchange markets.

When trading binary options, I am trading my expectations on certain events. I am entering contracts where one side of the contract has an expectation of some event, x, occurring and the other side of the contract has an expectation of some event, y, occurring. I am not trading a commodity, share, or currency. I … Continue reading Binary options: Mitigating risks from information barriers in the foreign exchange markets.

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Why should you care about what others are betting in the markets?

Are markets valid? Lately I have been questioning the validity of markets, specifically whether markets are the result of organic interactions between humans or whether markets are State-constructed funnels for moving portions of monetary energy from consumers to the government via taxes. I have to be mindful that markets are not some linear, mechanical construct … Continue reading Why should you care about what others are betting in the markets?

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Currency wars: Can the West afford an increasingly developed Africa, Asia, and Latin America?

The takeaway …. As I get ready for the release of the jobs report, a thought on the relationship between the world’s major geographic regions hit me. Do western nations, primarily the United States, the United Kingdom, and Eurozone, really want to see a developed Africa, Asia, or Latin America? Would development of these areas … Continue reading Currency wars: Can the West afford an increasingly developed Africa, Asia, and Latin America?

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Binary options: What weighed on trader minds last night; first glance at Global South FX rates.

What has been weighing on the minds of binary options traders? Traders who purchased the NADEX binary options contract for the EUR/USD>1.1340 expiring at 11pm last night won their bet. The contract closed at 1.13761. The idea that the European Central Bank will cut its interbank rates tomorrow likely influenced traders’ outlook on the trajectory … Continue reading Binary options: What weighed on trader minds last night; first glance at Global South FX rates.