Category: foreign exchange

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Could dollar weakening be in anticipation of the jobs report?

Currency pair 2 October 2023 3 October 2023 4 October 2023 5 October 2023   EUR/USD 1.0489 1.0472 1.0508 1.0547 Dollar weakening GBP/USD 1.2099 1.2077 1.2139 1.2193 Dollar weakening AUD/USD 0.6366 0.6303 0.6322 0.6370 Flat USD/JPY 149.8064 148.8225 149.1097 148.5140 Dollar weakening USD/CHF 0.9180 0.9207 0.9171 0.9131 Flat USD/CAD 1.3671 1.3711 1.3744 1.3714 Dollar strengthening … Continue reading Could dollar weakening be in anticipation of the jobs report?

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Should traders pray for state intervention in foreign exchange markets?

If I am assessing the probability of the exchange rate of a currency pair exceeding a certain price at a certain time, that expectation is going to be based, in part, on what government action may or may not occur. For all the anti-intervention chatter we hear from asset managers all over mainstream and social media, going through the following back-of-the napkin exercise has brought me to a contrarian view. Maybe some of these asset managers would like to see some kind of government action that creates profits for them. Continue reading Should traders pray for state intervention in foreign exchange markets?

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I have come to see that trading is the skill we need going forward into the 21st century …

The deluge of information makes it harder for we old heads to process info much less younger minds who are, unfortunately, not the greatest of critical thinkers. This need to vet leads to the second piece of insight: seek out platforms that can help you get to clarity. Continue reading I have come to see that trading is the skill we need going forward into the 21st century …

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I heard you should trade like a central bank. Let’s see what the Federal Reserve trading desks are waking up to on 5 September 2023.

The old adage is that 99% of retail traders fail. I believe that we are failing because we are not good at obtaining and trading the most valuable commodity: information and knowledge. That failure is compounded when we push up against the hourglass of time. Continue reading I heard you should trade like a central bank. Let’s see what the Federal Reserve trading desks are waking up to on 5 September 2023.

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As BRICS expands, what is the Federal Reserve looking at in terms of rates at 8:12 am EST, 24 August 2023.

At issue currently is the division among current members as to how fast the coalition should grow. In addition, there is also the issue of having an infrastructure in place that can support the movement of financial capital in a bloc made up of 40% of the world’s population. Continue reading As BRICS expands, what is the Federal Reserve looking at in terms of rates at 8:12 am EST, 24 August 2023.

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Rates seen by the Federal Reserve System on 17 August 2023, 11:50 pm EST.

Foreign exchange. EUR/USD=1.0957 GBP/USD=1.2694 AUD/USD=0.6493 NZD/USD=0.5983 USD/CHF=0.8765 USD/JPY=144.9400 USD/CAD=1.3437 Treasuries. 30-year=4.38% 10-year=4.28% Reference rates. Discount window=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Sources: Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Disclaimer: The data and output from this blog post does not constitute investment or legal advice … Continue reading Rates seen by the Federal Reserve System on 17 August 2023, 11:50 pm EST.

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Just a thought: The State’s ability to expand depends on markets.

Markets are tied to the concept of freedom, particularly the freedom to enter into negotiations and agree on the price of exchange. But I see markets as more than just a mechanism for moving goods and services. Markets, for political economy purposes, serve as nodes the State uses to extract energy in the form of taxes for the government. Continue reading Just a thought: The State’s ability to expand depends on markets.