Between 9:02 am and 11:26 am, the CME FedWatch tool reflected an increase in the chances that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase the federal funds target range by 50-basis points. Traders expect a 61% chance of a 50-point increase. Chances of a 25-point increase has slipped to 39% at the time of this … Continue reading Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.
The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.
The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?
This is a crazy sounding observation, but the Democrats may do best on the economy because of their preference for a high tax regime. I am not a proponent of the modern monetary theory or high taxes. I am not a proponent of taxes at all, but there is something to the MMT argument that … Continue reading Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.
As of 10:03 am today, Bloomberg reports a yield of 4.05% and 3.88% on two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, respectively. Data as of 16 August from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported two-year and 10-year yields of 4.08% and 3.92%, respectively. Meanwhile, the markets are betting on a cut in the … Continue reading As the Democratic national convention ramps up, what numbers are we looking at?
When Congress passed into law the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, it called on the Congress, the President, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to coordinate on economic policy for the purpose of battling inflation and unemployment and securing economic growth. I believe this means that when the president proposes her goals and targets for the economy that she is able to persuade fiscal and monetary policy makers to reconcile their goals with hers. Continue reading The Full Employment Act. Ignored by Trump and Harris alike…
It is tough to nail down Ms. Harris’ view on the currency and interest rates since Mr. Biden’s announcement three days ago that he was discontinuing his campaign for a second term. So far, her outreach efforts have included a couple speeches to black sororities, a meet and greet with her campaign staff in Wilmington, … Continue reading In the immediate term, the next president will have to think about who the next Fed chair will be.
Plenty of chatter on the business cable news channels and online press about the “Trump Trade.” The first time I heard this term, I was shuttled back to November 2016 when the business media proclaimed a “Trump Effect” on the markets. The media reported back then the market expectations of economic growth resulting from forecasted … Continue reading What is the Trump Trade? At a minimum, pre-mature.
So, a trader is sitting on a portfolio valued at USD1 million. Thirty percent of the portfolio is allocated to Treasurys; 25% to equities; 25% to gold; and 20% to real estate. They turn on their televisions and listen to an asset manager hustling her book that inflation is going to further whittle away at … Continue reading Connecting portfolio management to the Fed
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 