Category: Federal Reserve System

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The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

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Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

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As the Democratic national convention ramps up, what numbers are we looking at?

As of 10:03 am today, Bloomberg reports a yield of 4.05% and 3.88% on two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, respectively. Data as of 16 August from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported two-year and 10-year yields of 4.08% and 3.92%, respectively. Meanwhile, the markets are betting on a cut in the … Continue reading As the Democratic national convention ramps up, what numbers are we looking at?

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The Full Employment Act. Ignored by Trump and Harris alike…

When Congress passed into law the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, it called on the Congress, the President, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to coordinate on economic policy for the purpose of battling inflation and unemployment and securing economic growth. I believe this means that when the president proposes her goals and targets for the economy that she is able to persuade fiscal and monetary policy makers to reconcile their goals with hers. Continue reading The Full Employment Act. Ignored by Trump and Harris alike…

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In the immediate term, the next president will have to think about who the next Fed chair will be.

It is tough to nail down Ms. Harris’ view on the currency and interest rates since Mr. Biden’s announcement three days ago that he was discontinuing his campaign for a second term. So far, her outreach efforts have included a couple speeches to black sororities, a meet and greet with her campaign staff in Wilmington, … Continue reading In the immediate term, the next president will have to think about who the next Fed chair will be.

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Does the Federal Reserve need better listening tools?

I just read through opening remarks by Governor Michelle W, Bowman, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, delivered today during a Fed Listens event in Chicago. Fed Listens is an initiative through which policy makers engage community stakeholders in order to determine how monetary policy is impacting the lives … Continue reading Does the Federal Reserve need better listening tools?