Traders and investors may not be questioning Jerome Powell’s passion for piloting the economy, but they have been keeping their fingers crossed about a soft landing for the economy. Continue reading In terms of the economy, just what is a soft landing? It probably depends on where you are sitting.
The old adage is that 99% of retail traders fail. I believe that we are failing because we are not good at obtaining and trading the most valuable commodity: information and knowledge. That failure is compounded when we push up against the hourglass of time. Continue reading I heard you should trade like a central bank. Let’s see what the Federal Reserve trading desks are waking up to on 5 September 2023.
Fed Funds Futures. 30-Day Federal Funds Futures rate=94.57 Source: CME Group. Federal Reserve Reference Rates. Discount window rate=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Treasurys. 30-year rate=4.23% 10-year rate=4.12% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. … Continue reading 10 and 30-year yields tick down, according to Federal Reserve data. We’ve been here before. 11:11 pm EST, 30 August 2023.
Fed Funds Futures. 30-Day Federal Funds Futures rate=94.56 Source: CME Group. Federal Reserve Reference Rates. Discount window rate=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Treasurys. 30-year rate=4.29% 10-year rate=4.20% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. … Continue reading What interest rates are staring back at the Federal Reserve. 12:26 am EST 30 August 2023.
We cannot speak statistically to causation but do see a correlation between contraction in the economy and bankruptcy filings. If the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is not yet done, the increase in bankruptcy filings may be far from over as well. Continue reading Bankruptcy filings, in my opinion, are telling of Federal Reserve’s attempts at slowing down the economy.
The quick take … The 30-year and 10-year bond rates appear to have reversed from yesterday. The longer term 30-year should in theory be higher than the 10-year. Our forte is not bond analysis but in theory this rate relationship typically indicates that the markets are seeing a decline in risk. The further out the … Continue reading The Interbank: What the Federal Reserve is looking at in terms of rates at 8:35 am EST, 25 August 2023.
At issue currently is the division among current members as to how fast the coalition should grow. In addition, there is also the issue of having an infrastructure in place that can support the movement of financial capital in a bloc made up of 40% of the world’s population. Continue reading As BRICS expands, what is the Federal Reserve looking at in terms of rates at 8:12 am EST, 24 August 2023.
Fed Funds Futures. 30-Day Federal Funds Futures rate=94.565 Source: CME Group. Federal Reserve Reference Rates. Discount window rate=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Ready for another trader challenge? https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348 ) Treasurys. 30-year rate=4.45% 10-year rate=4.34% Source: Board … Continue reading After a dip in yields, the Fed sees rates for the 30 and 10-year bonds tick back up. 10:16 pm EST, 22 August 2023.
Fed Funds Futures. 30-Day Federal Funds Futures rate=94.565 Source: CME Group. Federal Reserve Reference Rates. Discount window rate=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Treasurys. 30-year rate=4.38% 10-year rate=4.26% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Continue reading Fed funds futures, reference rates, and Treasurys as 9:18 pm EST, 21 August 2023.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 