My back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.10. The probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1175 is priced at $7.20. At 9:36 am, Reuters priced the EUR/USD at 1.1210, an increase of 35 pips from yesterday’s 4:15 pm read of 1.1175. … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.
The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.
What the data is telling me … At 8:33 am today, I saw further slight strengthening in the US dollar against the euro and the yen. Data from Reuters evidenced declines from yesterday in the yields of ten-year bonds out of the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Japan. These declines told me that … Continue reading Is a recession around the corner?
According to data from MarketWatch, the DOW, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up after 48 hours of onslaught of the markets. The price of gold and oil are also up as volatility measured by the VIX has decreased. I do not know how much of the turnaround is due to the reported 90-day pause … Continue reading Back to the Future: A quick post on mercantilism.
Should I bet against the euro? At 1.0959 and not too cheery attitude out of the Eastern Central Bank, maybe I should find a contract and take the sell side. Reuters cited ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel’s belief that Europe is facing structural headwinds exacerbated by a surge in uncertainty that could get worse with U.S. … Continue reading EUR/USD, the euro: Europe’s yearning for world war days does not impress me.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 