Kugler speech missed the mark … On 22 April 2025, Federal Reserve Board governor Adriana D. Kugler gave a speech on the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. Governor Kugler explained how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) manages monetary policy by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make uncollateralized … Continue reading What Governor Kugler’s speech missed yesterday…
American traders have been showing their overall ignorance of politics in reaction to President Trump’s expressions of disgust with Jerome Powell’s approach to interbank rates. The chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has long pushed back against threats from the President to dismiss Mr. Powell from the chairmanship. Caselaw found … Continue reading Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST
The Bet Last week I made a bet that yesterday the EUR/USD would close between 1.0809 and 1.0931. The currency pair is at 1.1359 according to data from x-rates.com. I took it as a lesson that you have to analyze and incorporate policy news events into your predictions and go lateral, meaning taking in as … Continue reading A big ooops moment on the EUR/USD last week.
Should I bet against the euro? At 1.0959 and not too cheery attitude out of the Eastern Central Bank, maybe I should find a contract and take the sell side. Reuters cited ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel’s belief that Europe is facing structural headwinds exacerbated by a surge in uncertainty that could get worse with U.S. … Continue reading EUR/USD, the euro: Europe’s yearning for world war days does not impress me.
Law Review: Has LIBOR price manipulation risk been replaced by SOFR volatility risk? Investopedia, a finance news website, defines a reference rate as an interest rate benchmark designed to set other interest rates. Reference rates may be found in mortgage agreements and sophisticated mortgage rate swaps. They act as benchmarks for the performance of a … Continue reading Law, Interbank, and Money Markets: Has LIBOR price manipulation risk been replaced by SOFR volatility risk?
The takeaway: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults? Alejandro Riviera is upset today. He needs $200,000 per year in income in order to enjoy retirement with his wife, Anita, and the dog, Puff. Last week, with the two-year rate at 3.99%, Alejandro needed a portfolio of $5,012,531 to generate his … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults?
The takeaway: Trump wants a balanced budget, but half the work is already done. 15 USC § 3101(b)(2) lists as one of the goals for economic growth a balanced budget. Specifically, the section reads: “(2) Aggregate monetary and fiscal policies alone have been unable to achieve full employment and production, increased real income, balanced growth, … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”
U.S. Treasury rates The two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates yesterday continued their downward path, according to data from the U.S. Treasury. The two-year rate decreased from 4.13% to 4.07%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.40% to 4.30%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.66% to 4.55%. (Ready for your next trader challenge? Visit https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348) … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Are declining Treasury rates indicating an expected fall off in spending?
U.S. Treasury rates On 24 February 2025, the two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates moved down between 8:49 am and 5:05 pm. According to Treasury data, the two-year rate moved from 4.19% to 4.13%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.42% to 4.40%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.67% to 4.66%. Board of Governors of … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Fed reports steady overnight rates. Treasurys continue their fall. Congress quiet on financial markets.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 