Around 2:00 am this morning, it was projected that Donald J. Trump had secured enough potential Electoral College votes to be America’s 47th head of state. The official certification as president-elect will not occur until the middle of next month in the Electoral College with certification by the President of the Senate of the Electoral … Continue reading Today should mark America’s march toward a winning currency policy.
The big event this week, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, takes place on November 6 and 7. There is something else occurring on the 5th, but for the life of me, I cannot remember what it is. Here is a quick look at the data. Foreign exchange rates per the Board of Governors-Federal … Continue reading A quick look at elections, Federal Reserve, and Treasury data.
NPR’s Ashley Lopez today published a piece discussing the possibility of neither Donald Trump or Kamala Harris receiving the required 270 votes from the Electoral College to be declared President-Elect. Ms. Lopez describes the process where if neither candidate receives the minimum 270 votes, then it would be up to at least 26 congressional delegations … Continue reading How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?
For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …
Kamala Harris’ San Francisco posse needs to be replaced as evidenced by her interview just three hours ago with Fox News’ chief political anchor Bret Baier. There were at least three periods of contention during the interview generated by Mr Baier’s need to get in as many questions as possible before a hard wrap by … Continue reading Fox News: The Kamala Harris interview did not move markets
What I did not hear last night: who will be your pick for chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors? Who will be the director of the National Economic Council? Who would you select as chairman of the Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System? Who will you choose as Treasury secretary? (People are looking for ways … Continue reading What was missing from last night’s debate? An idea as to who will lead a Trump or Harris economy.
During last night’s debate, I expected no substance on the economy. I got none. When ABC’s David Muir asked Vice President Kamala Harris whether Americans are better off today than they were four years ago, she avoided the question, opting instead to share just a little word salad on social policy issues that she has … Continue reading Getting touchy-feely on last night’s debate
Tonight’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will likely leave traders with more questions than answers about how each candidate will use Executive power under the Constitution to drive expansion in the economy. The top concern of most Americans is how each candidate proposes to put a car in every … Continue reading Other than munching on some popcorn, tonight’s debate shouldn’t bring much benefit to traders.
Yesterday, I visited the Federal Elections Commission’s website to take a look at the donation activity of primary dealers. Primary dealers are counterparties to trades initiated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York when the bank is conducting monetary policy for the Federal Reserve System. In an admittedly simplistic example, if the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Managing the Trump or Harris trade
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 