Category: Donald Trump

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Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?

In its quarterly report to Congress regarding its foreign exchange operations for the second quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury reported that there was no intervention in the foreign exchange markets. The U.S. dollar, as measured by its broad-weighted dollar index, depreciated 5.6%. Cumulatively, the dollar has depreciated 7.5% since the … Continue reading Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?

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It is less about political interference with the Fed and more about the degree of interference.

There is ongoing concern of a threat by the Executive Branch to the independence of the Federal Reserve System, specifically influence by the Executive Office of the President on the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee on monetary policy. I do not think the issue is political threats to the independence of the … Continue reading It is less about political interference with the Fed and more about the degree of interference.

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As the USD continues to weaken, what does Trump get out of mediating a Russia-Ukraine peace deal?

As I write, the EUR/USD is at 1.17139. The EUR/USD has been increasing since 4:00 am when it read 1.16823. All eyes are on Anchorage, Alaska as U.S. president Donald Trump is set to meet Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin to discuss a resolution of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not … Continue reading As the USD continues to weaken, what does Trump get out of mediating a Russia-Ukraine peace deal?

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Today’s foreign exchange action further confirms that Congress long ago abdicated its duty to regulate the value of money.

The EUR/USD closed at 1.16624 at 3:00 pm EDT. It was trading around 1.15746 this morning at about 4:00 am. Because there were no major economic data releases today, traders had more time to lament the downward revision of 258,000 jobs in May and June, the potential pullback in consumer spending as a result of … Continue reading Today’s foreign exchange action further confirms that Congress long ago abdicated its duty to regulate the value of money.

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Time to discount effects of Trump’s call for a Powell removal on EUR/USD

From my trading desk: A little dollar strengthening from 5:00 am to 9:00 am, then … From 5:00 am to 9:00 am, I saw dollar strengthening based on the decreasing price of the EUR/USD as reported on the NADEX. The price went from 1.15424 to 1.15354. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its balance … Continue reading Time to discount effects of Trump’s call for a Powell removal on EUR/USD

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Does the United States have the labor capacity to handle any benefits from its trade deal with the EU?

From my trade desk … Yesterday, I had a brief conversation with my landlord about how tough it is in today’s labor market. I shared with him that my son had just left for graduate school up north. He shared his congratulations. I then shared with him how my son was one of the lucky … Continue reading Does the United States have the labor capacity to handle any benefits from its trade deal with the EU?

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Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.

Reuters today posted yet another call by U.S. President Donald Trump for Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the target range for the federal funds rate. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.50%. The federal funds rate is a weighted average of the … Continue reading Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.

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Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …

From my trading desk … FX Street is reporting today that traders of the EUR/USD should expect continued slides in the euro. I concur in their assessment given what I saw in the charts on the NADEX from 10:00 am yesterday morning to 11:00 pm that evening. The EUR/USD went from a close of 1.16375 … Continue reading Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …

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As Trump meets with von der Leyen, is he really looking for a weakened USD?

According to a news report in Reuters, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in efforts to hammer out a deal on tariffs and trade. President Trump has threatened a tariff of 30% on items imported into the United States from the European Union and if the … Continue reading As Trump meets with von der Leyen, is he really looking for a weakened USD?