Currency analyst and trader Kathy Lien shared this video where she discusses the reasons behind the current climb in dollar strength. She lists five major reasons. First, the US economy is doing well when compared to the Eurozone and Asia. Yields are increasing and attracting more investors. Second, the Trump return to the White House … Continue reading Is strong dollar policy antithesis of the Trump manufacturing agenda?
Emphasizing democracy may have cost the Democrats the election. Doubling down on their narrative may lead to the final implosion of the party. Democracy creates a feedback loop where the electorate hears the political class’s (elite) narrative, analyzes it to determine its relatability, costs, and benefits, and disposes of it when the electorate determines that … Continue reading Democracy stunted the Democrats. You can’t sell meat to vegans.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., suspended his candidacy last Friday after sharing with his supporters his belief that he saw no path to winning the Electoral College votes necessary for winning the presidency. In a speech announcing the suspension of his campaign, Mr. Kennedy shared the observation that, “In the name of saving democracy, the Democratic … Continue reading Was RFK, Jr. thrown under the bus to promote the new demographic order?
As of 10:03 am today, Bloomberg reports a yield of 4.05% and 3.88% on two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, respectively. Data as of 16 August from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported two-year and 10-year yields of 4.08% and 3.92%, respectively. Meanwhile, the markets are betting on a cut in the … Continue reading As the Democratic national convention ramps up, what numbers are we looking at?
By 4:25 pm yesterday, the yield on the ten-year bond was at 4.38%, according to data from Bloomberg. No change from the reading when the market opened at 9:30 am. The KBW Bank Index ended at 104.73 up from 103.52 at market opening. The S&P Utilities Select Sector Index yesterday closed at 737.49, up from … Continue reading The choice of Tim Walz did not appear to move markets much …
Polymarket, an event market, has the probability of a Donald Trump victory this November priced at $.59. This translates to a .59 probability of a win against presumptive Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, whose probability of winning is priced at $.39. The spread between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris is tighter on another well-known platform, … Continue reading Is Kamala Harris a liberal? Maybe. A statist? Yes.
Bloomberg yesterday reported that 44 million black women raised $1.5 million for Vice-President Kamala Harris within a three-hour period. Among the supporters were Bernice King, daughter of the late Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr; U.S. Representative Maxine Waters, Democrat of California; U.S. Representative Joyce Beatty, Democrat of Ohio; and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, Democrat of … Continue reading Reassessing the strength of Black support for Kamala Harris.
Around 1:46 pm today, President Joe Biden, via a letter to delegates, announced that he would not seek nor accept the nomination by the Democratic Party for president. I expected the announcement by tomorrow (Monday), but I guess a Sunday is good as any. More people at home to receive the news. The energy was … Continue reading The Wes Moore gambit. The downside of Joe Biden not resigning full stop.
This morning, I sent U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock and U.S. Representatives Nikema Williams and David Scott an email message about Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony to Congress. He appears tomorrow before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs and on Wednesday before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services. “Looking … Continue reading My quick email to Nikema Williams, Raphael Warnock, and David Scott regarding Powell’s upcoming testimony.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 