At 7:00 am EST, EUR/USD opened at 1.03017 and closed at 1.03052. I have to wonder how much news leaked about the strength of today’s jobs situation report. By the beginning of the eight o’clock hour of trade, EUR/USD had fallen to 1.0257 and continued to fall further to 1.02524. OMB Statistical Policy Directive 4 … Continue reading Are government agencies following their own embargoes?
As the media reacts to statements by the President-elect regarding tariffs on Canada and Mexico and taking Greenland from Denmark, I have to counsel caution about the weight and gravity of Donald Trump’s pre-inauguration pronouncements. Mr. Trump is not yet the President of the United States and until such time, trading desks should not pull … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: International Economic Emergency Powers Act: Never act on the rumor of executive action.
The GOP-controlled 119th Congress will take its seat around noon tomorrow. Over in the House chamber, there will be a vote for the Speaker of the House. Meanwhile, results from the Pan-European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index demonstrates the danger of making a five day call on where the EUR/USD may end up at week’s end. … Continue reading The 119th Congress takes its seat tomorrow as the dollar continues to strengthen.
Europe is closed for the day and the EUR/USD is, as of 11:01 am, priced at 1.0382. I am still confident that it will trade above 1.0288 by the end of this week. As usual, I am interested in trader sentiment within the gardened walls of the interbank market. Unless you are sitting on the … Continue reading At 11:35 am EST: If I could be the fly on a broker’s wall …
Where are the trading desks of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank moving markets? Back in mid-December, the Federal Open Market Committee directed its trading desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to undertake open market operations to maintain the federal funds rate between the target range of 4.25% and … Continue reading Looking behind the gardened walls of central banks
With all the talk of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa going their own way by moving away from the USD, the presumptive president-elect seeking a weaker dollar that promotes the export of goods manufactured in the United States, and a downward trend in foreign direct investment inflows to the United States, it would … Continue reading If FDI inflows are trending down, shouldn’t price of USD follow?
All is quiet as the U.S. prepares for Christmas along with the rest of the Anglo world. Last week I expected the EUR/USD to close above 1.0275 and it did at 1.0494. The current spot rate at 6:11 pm EST is 1.04412. I see one NADEX contract expiring on Friday at 3:00 pm with a … Continue reading I expect the EUR/USD to fall between 1.0288 and 1.0401. Also, Elon needs to tamp it down.
Narrative. Perception. Sentiment. That is what I saw tonight in play after the Bank of Japan released its statement on monetary policy. The USD/JPY was trading today around 153.786 at 1:00 pm EST. At 2:00 pm EST, when the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement, the yen had fallen, reflected in a USD/JPY of … Continue reading Narrative. Perception. Sentiment. And the dollar continues to strengthen against the yen.
The Bank of Japan decided to keep its target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0.25% and its deposit facility rate also at 0.25%. The uncollateralized call rate is similar to the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate while the deposit facility rate resembles the Fed’s interest on reserve balances rate. Japan’s consumer price index … Continue reading And the Bank of Japan has spoken …
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 