Category: currencies

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Interbank market news scan: Last week’s expectation of no Fed rate hike accompanied a lack of volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate between 5.00% and 5.25%. As the foreign exchange markets got closer to the 14 June 2023 decision, spreads in trade of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD got closer between 12 and 13 … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Last week’s expectation of no Fed rate hike accompanied a lack of volatility in the foreign exchange market.

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Interbank Market News Scan: Between debt ceiling banter and the unemployment rate, where will the EUR/USD land tomorrow?

If there is an increase in average wages accompanied by a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.4%, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal consumption expenditure index, I don’t see why the markets would expect a pause by the Board of Governors in raising the discount window and interest on reserve balances rates and changing its federal funds overnight target range. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Between debt ceiling banter and the unemployment rate, where will the EUR/USD land tomorrow?

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Interbank Market News Scan: Is one and done is out of the window according to CME Fed Watch?

The stats … 30-Day Federal Funds Futures and Options (ZQV3): 94.735 Effective Federal Funds Rate: 5.08% Discount Window Rate: 5.25% Interest on Reserve Balances: 5.15% 10-Year Treasury Note: 3.80% EUR/USD=1.0713 USD/JPY=140.5300 DXY=104.07 The takeaway … The dollar strengthens and I see less demand for the euro and the yen. According to data from the Federal … Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Is one and done is out of the window according to CME Fed Watch?

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Interbank Market News Scan: As the money supply falls, asset values fall as well…

The few that control financial and natural resources are as much afraid of uncertainty as you or I. Quelling uncertainty requires a model for managing expectations and in a credit-driven political economy that means determining before-hand where interest rates and yields should end up. Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: As the money supply falls, asset values fall as well…

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Consigliere: I am already seeing the impact of the debt ceiling deal…

The Speaker of the U.S. House, Kevin McCarthy, and the President of the United States, Joseph R. Biden, came to a tentative deal yesterday (Saturday, 27 May 2023) on the debt ceiling for the United States government. While a bill is still to be hammered out, MSN and Reuters report that the deal would put … Continue reading Consigliere: I am already seeing the impact of the debt ceiling deal…

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Interbank Market News Scan: Yen value against the dollar decreased while spreads tightened…

The Stats … Currency pair 22 May 2023 23 May 2023 24 May 2023 25 May 2023 26 May 2023 BTC/USD 26820.8 26795.9 27217.6 27201.2 26276.4 EUR/USD 1.08061 1.08146 1.07862 1.07675 1.07283 GBP/USD 1.24444 1.2442 1.24145 1.23948 1.23407 USD/JPY 137.195 138.16 138.549 138.802 139.699 Source: OANDA Analysis by FXStreet notes a number of factors that … Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: Yen value against the dollar decreased while spreads tightened…

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The Interbank Market News Scan: I expect the euro to continue dropping throughout the day… 8:45 AM EST

Looming in the background is the negative impact a slowed down economy will have on the Biden Administration and to a lesser extent the incumbents in the Congress. As the Biden Administration and the Congress negotiate the debt ceiling, there is the threat that fiscal policy in the form of higher taxes may be offered up as a way to shore up lacking tax revenue. This will also put a crimp on household and business spending. Continue reading The Interbank Market News Scan: I expect the euro to continue dropping throughout the day… 8:45 AM EST

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Interbank Market News Scan: I expect the EUR/USD to close above 1.0808 tomorrow.

The Stats … 30-Day Federal Funds Options (ZQV3): 94.99 Source: CME Group. Effective Federal Funds Rate: 5.08% Discount Window: 5.25% Interest on Reserve Balances: 5.15% EUR/USD=1.0856 USD/JPY=135.6300 GBP/USD=1.2464 AUD/USD=0.6649 NZD/USD=0.6193 Source: Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System. DXY=103.04 Source: MarketWatch. Today’s Definition: Effective federal funds rate “A volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions.” … Continue reading Interbank Market News Scan: I expect the EUR/USD to close above 1.0808 tomorrow.

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Interbank market news scan: Most of us are digital serfs. Some of us will learn to trade.

The upside for the “knowledge worker” is that if she plays her cards right, she can go from being a digital version of a tenant farmer and trade her own coin. She has the research ability and given the digital tools that she likely helped develop, she can identify opportunities for trade and actively enter the markets. This is why I shed no tears about engineers being laid off from Facebook, Google, or Twitter. You have the digital skills and the severance pay to become traders. Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Most of us are digital serfs. Some of us will learn to trade.