Category: currencies

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Could it be more about where the banks want to go versus where traders think the Fed wants to go?

Over the weekend, I spoke to my contacts in the banking industry trying to get a feel for banker sentiments on the Fed’s interest rate policy. The sentiments boiled down to the banks taking whatever the Fed decides in stride. As one contact put it, it’s about the money and the banks will take what … Continue reading Could it be more about where the banks want to go versus where traders think the Fed wants to go?

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Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?

In its quarterly report to Congress regarding its foreign exchange operations for the second quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury reported that there was no intervention in the foreign exchange markets. The U.S. dollar, as measured by its broad-weighted dollar index, depreciated 5.6%. Cumulatively, the dollar has depreciated 7.5% since the … Continue reading Does Trump want to create a more independent Europe for the sake of competition for the dollar?

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As the USD continues to weaken, what does Trump get out of mediating a Russia-Ukraine peace deal?

As I write, the EUR/USD is at 1.17139. The EUR/USD has been increasing since 4:00 am when it read 1.16823. All eyes are on Anchorage, Alaska as U.S. president Donald Trump is set to meet Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin to discuss a resolution of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not … Continue reading As the USD continues to weaken, what does Trump get out of mediating a Russia-Ukraine peace deal?

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Will Bostic or Goolsbee say something that will move the markets today?

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president and chief executive officer Raphael Bostic and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive officer Austan Goolsbee will each deliver remarks today on monetary policy and issues pertinent to the districts within which their banks operate. President Goolsbee is a member of this year’s Federal Open Market … Continue reading Will Bostic or Goolsbee say something that will move the markets today?

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Today’s foreign exchange action further confirms that Congress long ago abdicated its duty to regulate the value of money.

The EUR/USD closed at 1.16624 at 3:00 pm EDT. It was trading around 1.15746 this morning at about 4:00 am. Because there were no major economic data releases today, traders had more time to lament the downward revision of 258,000 jobs in May and June, the potential pullback in consumer spending as a result of … Continue reading Today’s foreign exchange action further confirms that Congress long ago abdicated its duty to regulate the value of money.

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The EUR/USD continues the bearishness. The NFA yanks membership of introducing broker Traders Edge.

From the trading desk … On the eve of the 1 August deadline for U.S. trading partners to get in line with President Trump’s trade policies, the EUR/USD continues its slide toward 1.1400. Investors are still upbeat about gross domestic product in the second quarter 2025 and the 104,000 job pick up reported yesterday by … Continue reading The EUR/USD continues the bearishness. The NFA yanks membership of introducing broker Traders Edge.

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Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.

Reuters today posted yet another call by U.S. President Donald Trump for Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the target range for the federal funds rate. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.50%. The federal funds rate is a weighted average of the … Continue reading Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.

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Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …

From my trading desk … FX Street is reporting today that traders of the EUR/USD should expect continued slides in the euro. I concur in their assessment given what I saw in the charts on the NADEX from 10:00 am yesterday morning to 11:00 pm that evening. The EUR/USD went from a close of 1.16375 … Continue reading Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …