Category: Congress

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It is less about political interference with the Fed and more about the degree of interference.

There is ongoing concern of a threat by the Executive Branch to the independence of the Federal Reserve System, specifically influence by the Executive Office of the President on the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee on monetary policy. I do not think the issue is political threats to the independence of the … Continue reading It is less about political interference with the Fed and more about the degree of interference.

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Federal Reserve: Is understanding the Fed that difficult or even useful?

The Federal Reserve as narrative promoter … While not a political organization, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System as an agent of the Congress, is responsible for crafting a narrative around the soundness of the United States currency. The centerpiece of the soundness narrative is found in 12 USC 225(a) where Congress … Continue reading Federal Reserve: Is understanding the Fed that difficult or even useful?

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The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …

Today’s takeaway … US tariff policy still in limbo. If the dollar strengthened after yesterday’s court decision that the President’s tariffs were the result of a misapplication of trade law, that strengthening was short-lived in light of today’s appellate ruling that keeps the President’s tariffs in play for now. (Ready for your next trader challenge? … Continue reading The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …

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A big move in the EUR/USD as the US government addresses fiscal concerns …

The data is scary … As of 7:08 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $9.30 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.90 I calculated a forward … Continue reading A big move in the EUR/USD as the US government addresses fiscal concerns …

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Law, Interbank and Money Markets News Scan: Counseling my clients to get politicians on code.

The Takeaway: Counseling my clients to get politicians on code. Yesterday, the U.S. Senate passed HR 1968, a continuing resolution to fund the government through the end of Fiscal Year 2025 but at Fiscal Year 2024 levels for most programs. The big hubba baloo in the media is over what appears to be continued weakness … Continue reading Law, Interbank and Money Markets News Scan: Counseling my clients to get politicians on code.

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Currency and money markets news scan: Massie wants to end the Fed. That is low-hanging fruit.

The takeaway: Massie wants to end the Fed. That is low-hanging fruit. The Federal Reserve again finds itself as the political football for a congressman, this time in the name of U.S. Representative Thomas Massie. The Kentucky congressman today announced the introduction of HR 1846, the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act. The Act would abolish … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Massie wants to end the Fed. That is low-hanging fruit.

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Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”

The takeaway: Trump wants a balanced budget, but half the work is already done. 15 USC § 3101(b)(2) lists as one of the goals for economic growth a balanced budget. Specifically, the section reads: “(2) Aggregate monetary and fiscal policies alone have been unable to achieve full employment and production, increased real income, balanced growth, … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”

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Interbank market news scan: Treasury yields continue their fall the wrong way. Congress not noticing.

The data …. The two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates continued their downward path today. According to data from the U.S. Treasury, the two-year rate moved from 4.07% to 4.05%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.30% to 4.25%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.55% to 4.51%. Meanwhile, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Treasury yields continue their fall the wrong way. Congress not noticing.