Category: capital

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Interbank market news scan: Are declining Treasury rates indicating an expected fall off in spending?

U.S. Treasury rates The two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates yesterday continued their downward path, according to data from the U.S. Treasury. The two-year rate decreased from 4.13% to 4.07%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.40% to 4.30%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.66% to 4.55%. (Ready for your next trader challenge? Visit https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348) … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Are declining Treasury rates indicating an expected fall off in spending?

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Interbank market news scan: On interest rates, traders be advised that Mr. Trump is out of his lane

Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would demand that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System lower interest rates. Mr. Trump’s off the cuff remarks reminded me of a scene from “Air Force One” where Harrison Ford’s character during a speech made in a central Asian country shared a position on … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: On interest rates, traders be advised that Mr. Trump is out of his lane

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Interbank market news scan: Trump makes an inflation promise that he can’t keep.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump promised today during his inaugural address that he would address the levels of inflation brought on by government overspending and high energy costs. He offered as a solution the old mantra, “Drill, baby, drill” implying that increases in the supply of American extracted and processed oil and gas would increase … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Trump makes an inflation promise that he can’t keep.

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If FDI inflows are trending down, shouldn’t price of USD follow?

With all the talk of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa going their own way by moving away from the USD, the presumptive president-elect seeking a weaker dollar that promotes the export of goods manufactured in the United States, and a downward trend in foreign direct investment inflows to the United States, it would … Continue reading If FDI inflows are trending down, shouldn’t price of USD follow?

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Growth in money supply is relatively flat, but is money more expensive?

Between September 2023 and September 2024, M2 money supply went from approximately $18,110.3 billion to $18,151.4 billion, according to data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This amounted to a decrease in money supply of 2.17%. During that period, the money supply dipped as low as $17,923.3 billion in February 2024. … Continue reading Growth in money supply is relatively flat, but is money more expensive?

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Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

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Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.

Should gross domestic product in part be a function of consumption? Professor Dave Collum argues that consumption is something you do after you have produced wealth; after you have produced something. My take on his position is that gross domestic product (output) would be equal to investment (capital) plus energy and effort. Expanding on Professor … Continue reading Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.

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Senate hearings on Federal Reserve monetary policy: Warnock surprised me today.

U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock, Democrat of Georgia, used his time during today’s U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs hearing on monetary policy to tie the problem of affordable housing in Georgia to Federal Reserve System rate setting. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System pointed out … Continue reading Senate hearings on Federal Reserve monetary policy: Warnock surprised me today.