With all the talk of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa going their own way by moving away from the USD, the presumptive president-elect seeking a weaker dollar that promotes the export of goods manufactured in the United States, and a downward trend in foreign direct investment inflows to the United States, it would … Continue reading If FDI inflows are trending down, shouldn’t price of USD follow?
Between September 2023 and September 2024, M2 money supply went from approximately $18,110.3 billion to $18,151.4 billion, according to data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This amounted to a decrease in money supply of 2.17%. During that period, the money supply dipped as low as $17,923.3 billion in February 2024. … Continue reading Growth in money supply is relatively flat, but is money more expensive?
Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …
Should gross domestic product in part be a function of consumption? Professor Dave Collum argues that consumption is something you do after you have produced wealth; after you have produced something. My take on his position is that gross domestic product (output) would be equal to investment (capital) plus energy and effort. Expanding on Professor … Continue reading Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.
U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock, Democrat of Georgia, used his time during today’s U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs hearing on monetary policy to tie the problem of affordable housing in Georgia to Federal Reserve System rate setting. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System pointed out … Continue reading Senate hearings on Federal Reserve monetary policy: Warnock surprised me today.
Today, Federal Reserve System governor Adriana D. Kugler reiterated in remarks what we have been hearing from other Federal Reserve Board members: that inflation is still too high, even given the progress on lowering it. Governor Kugler pointed out that inflation is moving down slowly and that easing rates is possible later this year. Like … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Kugler continues the Fed Speak on inflation.
Strategically, it makes sense that Fearless Fund would seek to apply one prong of the State’s power, the Executive, to help settle whether a mechanism that creates, extracts, and distributes capital is being fairly deployed. Alliance was the first to pull the State power trigger when it filed its suit last year. The issue here is should Mr. Biden issue an executive order? My answer is no. Continue reading Should the executive power be applied to help out the Fearless Fund? No.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 