From my trading desk: A little dollar strengthening from 5:00 am to 9:00 am, then … From 5:00 am to 9:00 am, I saw dollar strengthening based on the decreasing price of the EUR/USD as reported on the NADEX. The price went from 1.15424 to 1.15354. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its balance … Continue reading Time to discount effects of Trump’s call for a Powell removal on EUR/USD
From the trading desk … A slow day for me on the NADEX. This morning, I bought the EUR/USD > 1.1540 that expired at 3 pm today and sold the EUR/USD > 1.1640 that also expired at 3pm today. Price at expiration was 1.15645. Markets were still digesting the May and June downward revision of … Continue reading As America gets over last week’s payrolls number, Kalshiex sees a legal setback …
From my trade desk … Yesterday, I had a brief conversation with my landlord about how tough it is in today’s labor market. I shared with him that my son had just left for graduate school up north. He shared his congratulations. I then shared with him how my son was one of the lucky … Continue reading Does the United States have the labor capacity to handle any benefits from its trade deal with the EU?
Reuters today posted yet another call by U.S. President Donald Trump for Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the target range for the federal funds rate. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.50%. The federal funds rate is a weighted average of the … Continue reading Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.
According to a news report in Reuters, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in efforts to hammer out a deal on tariffs and trade. President Trump has threatened a tariff of 30% on items imported into the United States from the European Union and if the … Continue reading As Trump meets with von der Leyen, is he really looking for a weakened USD?
According to a report in Reuters, France intends to recognize a Palestinian state during the United Nations General Assembly this September. Reuters quotes France’s president Emmanuel Macron as saying, “True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognise the state of Palestine.” … Continue reading Will the EUR/USD be impacted by France’s recognition of a Palestinian state?
July 23, 2025 WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight and the Division of Clearing and Risk today announced they have taken a no-action position regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations in response to a request from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization. … Continue reading CFTC Staff Issues No-Action Letter Regarding Event Contracts
Back on 7 July, the EUR/USD spot price was at 1.17802 around 8:09 am. I had determined a forward rate of 1.1775 for 9 July 2025. At 7:02 am, the EUR/USD was at 1.17029 and I recalculated the forward rate for this Friday at 1.1701. The spot price is the price in the marketplace at … Continue reading As we await the FOMC minutes, EUR/USD shows some dollar strengthening.
I bought a EUR/USD contract speculating on a close above 1.1700 by 11 am this morning. At 11:00 am, the EUR/USD price at expiration was 1.17385. Tariff uncertainty dominated the media scuttlebutt as markets kept all eyes on President Trump’s letter writing campaign. According to CBS News, Mr. Trump was to send tariff increase letters … Continue reading Binary options: Did Trump’s tariff letters upset the EUR/USD?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 