The 4:15 pm EDT fix … As Memorial Day winds down in the United States, the EUR/USD is priced at 1.1382 and the USD/JPY is priced at 142.75. These prices indicate some weakening of the U.S. dollar since 10:17 pm EDT on 22 May when the EUR/USD was sitting at 1.1305 and the USD/JPY was … Continue reading Lagarde asks the world to come check out the euro…
Yesterday, I calculated today’s forward price for the EUR/USD at 1.1210. Reuters reported at 12:11 pm EST a EUR/USD price of 1.1143. The dollar has been strengthening since 9:33 am when the USD was priced at 1.1192, falling slightly to 1.1182 around 11:02 am. (Ready for your next trader challenge? Visit https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348) NADEX at 9:43 … Continue reading Binary options snapshot from the NADEX at 12:11 EST
The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?
A Reuters article posted earlier last week discussed China’s desire to open up its exchange traded funds to Western market makers. The article mentions Citadel, an alternative investment manager, and Jane Street, a trading firm. According to Reuters: “Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licences (sic) and encouraged the development of … Continue reading Western banks doing business in China tells me there won’t be a kinetic war anytime soon.
The Bet Last week I made a bet that yesterday the EUR/USD would close between 1.0809 and 1.0931. The currency pair is at 1.1359 according to data from x-rates.com. I took it as a lesson that you have to analyze and incorporate policy news events into your predictions and go lateral, meaning taking in as … Continue reading A big ooops moment on the EUR/USD last week.
For the past couple of years, I have been listening to the debate between the gold bugs and the crypto bros. After listening to the arguments, I came up with my own definition of money which I may have shared in the past. Money is energy plus sweat plus output. It is sound money where … Continue reading Are gold and crypto energy?
What I’m reading today: A Lawyer’s Perspective on U.S. Payment System Evolution and Money in the Digital Age. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In 2022, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published a paper authored by Jess Cheng and Joseph Torregrossa discussing the legal underpinnings of the payment … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market as of 1:00 pm AST: Thoughts on capturing legal risks in interest rates …
What we are reading today … White House. Venezuela. Tariffs. “On or after April 2, 2025, a tariff of 25 percent may be imposed on all goods imported into the United States from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, whether directly from Venezuela or indirectly through third parties. Duties imposed by this order will be … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan as of 11:00 am AST: Trump’s tariffs on Venezuela appears to have little impact on the Eastern Caribbean; European money supply increases.
The Takeaway: Is the Eastern Caribbean legal framework preventing a trade opportunity in complimentary currency? Fractional reserve banking is the milk of the poppy that even Caribbean central banks may not be able to shake (Sorry. I have been reading A Game of Thrones). This thought popped into my mind while listening to a webinar … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank and Money Markets: Is the Eastern Caribbean legal framework preventing a trade in complementary currency?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 